Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Other Poker > Other Poker Games

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-07-2005, 11:32 PM
TheIrishThug TheIrishThug is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: playing nl omaha h/l stud
Posts: 204
Default NL 27/ TD question

this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.

i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-08-2005, 01:16 AM
MarkGritter MarkGritter is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 244
Default Re: NL 27/ TD question

[ QUOTE ]
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.

i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what my tool says about drawing 3 to 72AAA:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
7 5 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.00394696
7 6 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.00789393
7 6 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0118409
7 6 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0157879
8 7 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.0197348
8 7 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0236818
8 7 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0276287
8 7 6 3 2 0.00394696 0.0315757
8 7 6 4 2 0.00394696 0.0355227
8 7 6 5 2 0.00394696 0.0394696
9 7 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.0434166
9 7 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0473636
9 7 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0513105
976xx 0.0118409 0.0631514
98xxx 0.0157879 0.0789393
T-high 0.0592044 0.138144
J-high 0.0828862 0.22103
Q-high 0.110515 0.331545
K-high 0.142091 0.473636
A-high 0.0444033 0.518039
pair of deuces 0.140611 0.658649
...
</pre><hr />

So, a rough A is probably a slight dog, but K-high is a 53% favorite. (Actually, in this case if you have an A your opponent cannot possibly get an A--- removing the fourth A puts him at a K or better 50.5% of the time.)

Drawing two to 723AA:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
7 5 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0148011
7 6 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0296022
7 6 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.0444033
8 7 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0592044
8 7 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.0740056
8 7 6 3 2 0.0148011 0.0888067
9 7 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.103608
9 7 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.118409
976xx 0.0148011 0.13321
98xxx 0.0148011 0.148011
T-high 0.0740056 0.222017
J-high 0.0888067 0.310823
Q-high 0.103608 0.414431
K-high 0.118409 0.53284
A-high 0.066605 0.599445
pair of deuces 0.105458 0.704903
...
</pre><hr />

Here you need Q-high. Similar results for drawing to 234AA.

However, just because standing pat makes you a favorite does not mean it's the most +EV choice...
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-08-2005, 09:30 AM
bobman0330 bobman0330 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 52
Default Re: NL 27/ TD question

more numbers:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131009
pokenum -mc 500000 -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c / ah
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 2h 161576 32.32 338325 67.67 99 0.02 0.323
8s 3c 5d 7h 338325 67.67 161576 32.32 99 0.02 0.677

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131012
pokenum -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c ah
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 68880 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 2h 29154 42.33 39726 57.67 0 0.00 0.423
8s 3c 5d Ah 7h 39726 57.67 29154 42.33 0 0.00 0.577

Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing.

Anyways, you should be a favorite over a draw, but you really need to draw yourself
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-08-2005, 10:42 AM
lucas9000 lucas9000 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 103
Default Re: NL 27/ TD question

[ QUOTE ]
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.

i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to know what game you're in where someone gets all their money in pre-draw and then draws 3 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-08-2005, 12:11 PM
MarkGritter MarkGritter is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 244
Default Re: NL 27/ TD question

[ QUOTE ]

Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm not surprised. Taking three of anything out of the deck is going to affect that rank. I should upgrade my tool to explore a variety of holdings (like 27 + three random high cards.)

What is the highest card villian should keep here and draw two instead? J, T, or 9? Or none?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-08-2005, 01:45 PM
bobman0330 bobman0330 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 52
Default Re: NL 27/ TD question

If hero is drawing to 8753, a 9. If hero is pat, he should keep any card up through a K, i think.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 08-08-2005, 01:58 PM
TheIrishThug TheIrishThug is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: playing nl omaha h/l stud
Posts: 204
Default Re: NL 27/ TD question

[ QUOTE ]
i want to know what game you're in where someone gets all their money in pre-draw and then draws 3 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, it was just 3 friends filling some time buy playing a quick freeze out. and mr 3draw is still a beginner.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.