Odds of winning a tournament

[skitzo444]

I was wondering if there was a formula for your chances of coming in first place of a MTT. If 800 people enter are the odds you win 800:1 . What if you are an above average player. If 500-800 people enter what are your chances of winning??

Thanks

[burgi]

depends on how much above average you are!

[justT]

I don't think anyone can give you a good answer, but I'm willing to calculate a guess.

I get a 0.25% chance for an above average player to win an 800 field tourney

I figure of the 800, about 400 have some kind of fatal flaw such that their chance of winning is close to zero (don't tell them though), they have a very good chance of whining however. The 400 that are left are "above average" by definition and split the likelyhood of winning, that being 1/400 or 0.25%. Some will obviously be much higher (better than your average bear), some may be much lower (i.e. I may have underestimated the number of players with fatal flaws).

I think it is like a bell curve depending on the player ranging from about 3% down to 0.005% with the median being 0.125%.

[kutuz_off]

Nobody is 20 times better than the average. You underestimate the luck factor, I think.

[CardSharpCook]

or overestimate the skill factor....

[kutuz_off]

Well, since there are no other factors, those two statements are probably equivalent

You are probably right. I was just thinking of Gank's post of all his tourneys for the week and trying to figure out how the best layers would fare on average. Maybe cut that in half to 1.5% for the very best. Also depends on the talent pool in the tourney.