Hand vs. QTip. How terrible is the turn? - Page 4

Octopus · #31 10-26-2005, 01:54 PM

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QTip is far less likely to have TT or QQ because he's a good player and doesn't make transparent plays like capping preflop and then checking when he hits a set. His flop check/call to me puts him on AK about 90% of the time, with some weird slowplay the other 10%, and I even think that's stretching it. That leads me to believe that QTip should be betting this flop too.

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It also means you think Hero should be checking the turn and folding the river for one bet unimproved. I agree about the turn and I think the (hypothetical) river is close.

Erik W · #32 10-26-2005, 02:02 PM

Everyone seems to think it is standard to cap AKo in this hand
preflop in position. Does everyone agree on that?

Is it always a cap even if it is 2handed in position?

I cap AKs but rarely AKo.

shant · #33 10-26-2005, 02:04 PM

I think it was my boy Jason that said that 2-3 handed there's not much difference between AKs and AKo.

Dagger78 · #34 10-26-2005, 02:06 PM

Personally I love the turn check by you here Q. I think 90% of the time I'm going to bet here and you can C/R. I Imagine you put me on a range of AK, TT-AA(possibly AQs). There is no reason (assuming you think I'm a decent player) that I would check ANY of those hands behind on the turn.

The river is also a no-brainer in my opinion. I imagine you're probably pretty confused as to my hand here, but have no reason to suspect I checked Trips on the turn. If you'd logged ALOT of hands with me I think you could fold to the 3-bet, but I'd have to be VERY confident to do so.

Dagger78 · #35 10-26-2005, 02:15 PM

The River raise by me was automatic. I do agree in retrospect that a flat call to get the overcall by UTG is probably better. I'm going to win this hand the majority of the time, but I won't be able to fold if QTip caps with QQ(I'm not saying I shouldn't, but I won't be able to).

The chance of him having TT is pretty insignificant right? First he wouldn't cap, and second it probably wouldn't see the turn.

What is the chance UTG calls the Re-raise cold? I'd have to give it some chance(most donks won't fold two pair, or even top pair on the river). So a 3-bet could net me as much as 6BBs, but could lose me 4BBs every time QTip has QQ.

Octopus · #36 10-26-2005, 02:19 PM

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The chance of him having TT is pretty insignificant right? First he wouldn't cap, and second it probably wouldn't see the turn.

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Yes he might (with the right reads on the third player, but you are right, it is not terribly likely) and yes he would (getting 17-1 closing the action).

Dagger78 · #37 10-26-2005, 02:20 PM

If you bet the flop here I'm raising every single time, and then betting every turn when checked to. I'm not sure if playing this hands against a TAG OOP is better than keeping UTG.

Betting this flop will turn out like this normally. QTip bets, I raise, UTG folds. QTip misses the turn(most of the time) it goes check/bet/call. River if he misses again, check/bet/fold.

Is this the result we want to get by betting? Is having you hand that transparent even that big of a drawback?(obviously is this situation yes) but most of the time he will miss and fold, or I'll miss my boat and still call(I just won't lay down trips for a single bet, regardless of my read, I'm just not that good)

DMBFan23 · #38 10-26-2005, 02:24 PM

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Can we talk about my flop play and my thoughts there:

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My thoughts at the time were that any hand he just 3 bet me with there is going to get raised on that flop except TT. So, I figured I would just see the turn for cheap. Perhaps a raise would have been good though if it would have gotten rid of the donk. However, whether he would have folded anything for 2 he would have just folded for 1 is questionable. I didn't really think at the time though how painfully obvious my hand would be at that point.

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Can we also talk about my turn play given the way I played the flop?

Also, what about the river?

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I like a turn bet QTip, this is where opponent will be checking behind hands like 99 and AJ if he has them. also he can probably muck AQ to your checkraise because he knows you're a good TAG. however I don't hate this at all, because if he does have a hand (KK, AA, set) he will most likely bet it (on account of not reading your hand very well), I think his check here was awesome.

EDIT: when I say 'he' here I mean your standard TAG 2/4 player, I am not assuming anything about OP specifically.

Dagger78 · #39 10-26-2005, 02:24 PM

I didn't realize the odds at that point(17-1), yes he'd see the turn. But it's still pretty rare considering the OOP pre-flop cap.

QTip · #40 10-26-2005, 02:26 PM

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If you bet the flop here I'm raising every single time, and then betting every turn when checked to. I'm not sure if playing this hands against a TAG OOP is better than keeping UTG.

Betting this flop will turn out like this normally. QTip bets, I raise, UTG folds. QTip misses the turn(most of the time) it goes check/bet/call. River if he misses again, check/bet/fold.

Is this the result we want to get by betting? Is having you hand that transparent even that big of a drawback?(obviously is this situation yes) but most of the time he will miss and fold, or I'll miss my boat and still call(I just won't lay down trips for a single bet, regardless of my read, I'm just not that good)

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I'm glad you're back in the discussion dagger.

Let's all be serious for a minute. For those of you betting this flop, why? Are you really doing it because if you don't you think you're opponent will know exactly your hand? Or because you capped PF, and that's what you do is bet any flop.

I'm certainly getting raised here on this flop, and I'm not looking to pay to for what's probably a drawing hand here that could be in some serious trouble.