Marginal hand + draw = check turn?

JrJordan · #1 08-18-2005, 01:30 PM

Table as a whole is pretty loose passive. There is very little chance of a turn c/r from either player if they have a J, or perhaps even the turned K.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks...

Super ragged flop with two callers, am I ahead enough to bet this turn and take a free showdown? FWIW, these players are passive enough that if I check the turn and one of them bets the river that a fold could be +EV here UI.

mscags · #2 08-18-2005, 01:35 PM

If there is very little chance that one of them will check raise you then I like to follow up with a bet here. I think it has to have some folding equity in this spot, not to mention that you have a [censored] ton of outs.

wackjob · #3 08-18-2005, 01:43 PM

Bet the turn everytime.

Transference · #4 08-18-2005, 01:58 PM

I used to mostly bet these. Now I mostly check these. Obviously most of the advice I've gotten is to take the card in situations like these.

It's a fairly close theoritcal question I think though.

How does the king affect your fold equity?
I think it improves it here. I'm slightly more convinced after it's checked to you. Blind calls are essentialy random against these guys, so kings and aces recive less weight. Even passive players can bet this turn if they hit a king.

Does the pot size justify taking a shot?
I think its pretty close. I think we can take this down 1 in 4 right here. The pot size is about that spot where its big enough to invest a shot but small enough that you still have some fold equity.

Can I bet for value?
Given that we are against loose passives in the blinds a wide range is in order. 910, 10Q, 810, A3 etc could certinaly all be out there. A few are drawing incorrectly a few arnt. The flop calls probably don't help us narrow the range much or at all.

I think the fold equity we have, the possiblity that we have the best hand and the number of strong outs we have make this a bet.

sethypooh21 · #5 08-18-2005, 02:17 PM

Excellent post, Trans.

I think bet this, as you have a bunch of outs, betting gets you a free showdown UI, and many LP's know enough to take a river shot vs. your betting pattern if you check behind turn. And this is not a spot where you really hate getting CR'ed if one of them does have K-something...

StellarWind · #6 08-18-2005, 02:19 PM

This is an automatic bet for value and protection. There are five straight draws using reasonable card combinations on this flop and none of them improved. You are ahead of many pocket pairs and flopped pairs. Someone may well have called this flop with ace high.

The flush draw and pair outs add equity to your bet. They are a very strong reason why you *should* bet.

JrJordan · #7 08-18-2005, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is an automatic bet for value and protection. There are five straight draws using reasonable card combinations on this flop and none of them improved. You are ahead of many pocket pairs and flopped pairs. Someone may well have called this flop with ace high.

The flush draw and pair outs add equity to your bet. They are a very strong reason why you *should* bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks all. FWIW I hated my check as soon as I made it for the very reasons you all pointed out. Too much value from lower pairs, draws, yadda yadda yadda.