Semi-tough river value bet?

[JrJordan]

Villain is very loose passive preflop, but is a mix of calling station, donk bettor, and bluff raiser postflop. We really want to get to showdown vs. this type of player. Versus another player he did smoothcall a flop bet, raise a turn+call a 3bet, and fold the riv. I don't remember the exact board but it wasn't especially drawy.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...

My kicker got counterfeit, any K is ahead and he would likely go for a c/r here. I get value from an 8, turned Q, or some PP that decided to stick around (not sure if he would call down with a PP lower than 88, we'll assume if he's gotten this far that he will call). I can't fold to a c/r FWIW here.

[flawless_victory]

seems like an obvious check, but i guess im not sure what some asick 5/10 players might call you down with.

[wackjob]

I like the check behind here. The reasons you pointed out are quite valid. Any A is a chop - no value, K and you are fuxxored, straight &amp; you are fuxxored. Add these with the fact that any hand you might beat on the river is probably going to fold if you bet &amp; I think a check is win.

[mute]

I wouldn't feel comfortable betting this either. However, I didn't bet this river, so just take my advice for what it's worth.

These hands seem quite similar to me, the only difference being, that I can fold to a raise easily, but maybe that makes all the difference in the world?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't feel comfortable betting this either. However, I didn't bet this river, so just take my advice for what it's worth.

These hands seem quite similar to me, the only difference being, that I can fold to a raise easily, but maybe that makes all the difference in the world?

[/ QUOTE ]

In your hand you are OOP. Since your hand is strong enough that you will have to call a bet, you are better off betting because more worse hands will call than will bet when you check. You will be paying off with the worse hand in most instances and let him off the hook when he has a small PP or T what would have called.

Sorry if the one-liner response in your thread wasn't sufficient.

In this spot hero has position, so he doesn't have to call a bet when he checks through - he gets to dodge a c/r from a somewhat bluff-inclined player. Additionally, the board is a bit scarier from BBs perspective if he holds a PP since our hero PFRd and the lions share of PFRing hands have connected with this board in one way or another.

Surf

[mute]

Leak plugged. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Wynton]

Your description of the player makes me lean towards betting. My reasoning is that if he has an A, then there's no harm. If he has a K, you lose. But this player is capable of calling with a medium pocket pair too, according to your characterization of him.

What I'm not sure of is whether the issue is:
(1) Is there a greater chance that he has a K or a pocket pair?, or
(2) Is there a greanter chance that he has an A or a K, rather than a smaller pocket pair?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

What I'm not sure of is whether the issue is:
(1) Is there a greater chance that he has a K or a pocket pair?, or
(2) Is there a greanter chance that he has an A or a K, rather than a smaller pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should also consider that if he has a king it may cost you extra bets. And if you lan on folding to a cr, will he do this with a naked ace.

Krishan

EASY check.

[Trix]

I´m checking if I can´t fold to a CR.