Bubble hand, 99

[Morbo]

Yea, I see I didn't pay too much attention to the hand history. If you are chipleader or just about even, I push with any two. Now, I fold aswell.

[jdl22]

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These situations are my bread and butter, I push with any two. Why would anyone else want to call?

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If I have more chips than the guys behind me I push any two as well, but not if they have about twice my chips. I would fold here.

[HighestCard]

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I was expecting to get a lot of "play for first" comments but I thought this was one of those secenarios where you have to make the final three first before you can win.

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I get your point but...
This is an easy fold if the shortie is getting in the blind before me. There is no gaurentee that he is going to be knocked out (I know, rare). If somebody min-raises your BB, you are pot committed with any two face cards or pockets. I see it as push then, or push now with an actual hand. If you do double up, the sb is most likely going to be folded to you with the guy fearing being knocked out himself. I say the reward outweighs the risk here.

Please flame, preferably with math calculations..

[bigt439]

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These situations are my bread and butter, I push with any two. Why would anyone else want to call?

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Joking, not joking?... We may never know. Hopefully joking.

[Morbo]

See my last post. I didn't pay attention to the fact that the other two guys have him covered by far. It's a fold.

[bigt439]

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This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

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Somebody correct my thinking here because I cant see why this is such an easy fold. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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You are virtually guaranteed to make the money. If you went on post and fold you would make the money something like 99.5% of the time... or something. When you push and lose you don't make the money. When you push and win you have not gained nearly enough $EV to warrant pushing. Risk does not equal reward and it's not even remotely close.

[djj6835]

Most people say fold and I agree with that. Now a couple more questions.

1. With the exact same stack sizes, how strong of hand would you need to push in the exact same spot?

2. How big can the UTG short stack get before you would push 99 here?

[HighestCard]

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You are virtually guaranteed to make the money. If you went on post and fold you would make the money something like 99.5% of the time... or something. When you push and lose you don't make the money. When you push and win you have not gained nearly enough $EV to warrant pushing. Risk does not equal reward and it's not even remotely close.


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Obviously your gaurenteed 3rd if you fold here, but I wish I could do ICM calculations to figure out if you double up your chances of winning 1st, and see if they outweigh folding here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[mlagoo]

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Most people say fold and I agree with that. Now a couple more questions.

1. With the exact same stack sizes, how strong of hand would you need to push in the exact same spot?

2. How big can the UTG short stack get before you would push 99 here?

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1: I would tend to think QQ or better (AK not included). I could see an argument made for KK or better. I don't think it's right to fold KK here.

2: This is an interesting question. I want to say something like the size of the BB? Maybe 500 or so? But that is completely unsupported by any math =) So take it for what it's worth.

I am unsure even what sort of calculation you would need to run here.

[Morbo]

Guesstimate:

1: QQ
2: about 500