Losing with 33 - some hands for inspection.

TripleH68 · #1 10-17-2005, 01:18 PM

After 45,000 hands in my PT database I am winning with AA-88, losing with 77-22.
Looking specifically at 33 I have been dealt the hand 154 times:

VP$IP = 50%
CCPF once
W$WSF = 15%
W$SD = 50%
WTSD = 15%
bb/hand = (0.20)

Not the largest sample size, but considering my stats are similar for 22, 44, 55 and 66 here are a few hand samples I picked out.
Some are very routine, some not. I hope you do not consider this post a waste of time/space. I am just starting to feel like maybe I should really tighten up with these low pockets unless I can figure out how to play them better. Thanks in advance for any/all discussion.

HAND 1
Perhaps a stale debate on whether you should open limp in EP?
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 3.16 BB

HAND 2
Preflop call seems okay. Call this flop?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Qs As (one pair, aces).
UTG+2 has Kc Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 15.75 BB. 

HAND 3
CO preflop raise is 9%. Should hero consider raising this somewhere?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3c 3h (two pair, nines and sevens).
CO has Js Ac (two pair, nines and sevens).
Outcome: CO wins 6.25 BB. 

HAND 4
This seems like another common situation. Does not feel good when it happens...
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds.

Turn: (9 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB folds, UTG+1 folds.

River: (12 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 6h Qs (two pair, queens and sixes).
MP3 has 9h Jc (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins 14 BB. 

HAND 5
Did I mess up every street here?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6d Jc (two pair, sixes and fours).
Hero has 3h 3c (two pair, fours and threes).
Outcome: BB wins 5.50 BB. 

HAND 6
Pot is very small.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 3.66 BB

HAND 7
Bet the turn and/or river here? Villain is 10/9/1.0.
Is the flop bet even worth it?
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 5d Tc (one pair, fives).
Hero has 3c 3d (one pair, threes).
Outcome: BB wins 5 BB.

Fantam · #2 10-17-2005, 01:35 PM

Just an observation, but from your sample of hands, you seem to be pushing your small pairs very hard IMHO.

I am not sure that you were receiving the implied odds necessary to play in all of those hands.

Also I think that I noticed that you called down a couple of times, when your small pair was an underpair to the whole board.

So I would ease up a little bit when playing them, and look for more multiway pots to limp into, unless you are going to open raise off the button.

#3 10-17-2005, 01:37 PM

Hi TripleH-

The fact that you're losing with 77-22 is very disconcerting. It leads me to believe you're calling too much in early or middle position with too few people in the pot. The hands you posted lend validity to my suspicion - imho, if the table is < 30 % VPIP you shouldn't be playing < 66 in early or mid without at least 2 callers.

Here's some feedback about individual hands:

hand 1: Fold this preflop.

hand 2: Don't post in MP2. Don't CC for two bets, it's not worth it at this point, especially when you don't know whether it will be capped. Your implied odds don't justify it.

hand 3: Raise the turn or fold to his turn bet. If you take this line, you can bet through the river and he'll put you on a 7 or 9 often enough to fold this and make your bluff worthwhile once your pair is counterfeited.

hand 4: Standard.

hand 5: Debateable. If your table image is OK a flop bet is alright here but you need to stop firing after that. You won't get both players to fold 25 % of the time here on the turn, especially with the flush draw out there.

hand 6: 2 people left to act after you? Check it through and fold to flop aggression, pot is small. I would bet this if you were last to act, however, and call a check/raise hoping to peel off a diamond.

hand 7: If you're going to try bluffs like this, you need to fire on all 3 streets. After missing the flop bluff, you either give it up or follow through with the river, it's that ace villian should be scared of and give you credit for.

Good luck with your small pocket pairs.

PJM1206 · #4 10-17-2005, 01:47 PM

I only play 44-22 in late postion with 3 callers in front of me other wise I trash them they usually require a set to win and given that it's a 11 to 1 to flop and 22 to 1 after that you need to have several callers in front to play.

PJM1206 · #5 10-17-2005, 01:48 PM

PPS I just recently started to turn a profit on my low pairs

#6 10-17-2005, 01:50 PM

I have good profit margins with my low pp. I want to say somewhere between .2 and .5, on average, although last I checked I think I was losing money with one of them - losing with 66 and making a killing on 55 or something like that. Too bad I don't have a database at work. Too bad work does not equal poker [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Fantam · #7 10-17-2005, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I only play 44-22 in late postion with 3 callers in front of me other wise I trash them they usually require a set to win and given that it's a 11 to 1 to flop and 22 to 1 after that you need to have several callers in front to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

#8 10-17-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need better odds for lower pp than higher ones, however, because you are significantly more likely to be facing an overset with 22 than with TT. While your implied odds can make up discrepancies preflop and make it profitable to play 33 with say, 4 other players, hitting your set only to have another player hit another set does tend to reduce this.

#9 10-17-2005, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need better odds for lower pp than higher ones, however, because you are significantly more likely to be facing an overset with 22 than with TT. While your implied odds can make up discrepancies preflop and make it profitable to play 33 with say, 4 other players, hitting your set only to have another player hit another set does tend to reduce this.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh and be as scared of oversets as you would be of royal flushes on a board of 33344 when your holding A3.

remember, the size of a situational mistake = individual +or- ev multiplied by the frequency with which that situation occurs.

the frequency of oversets is absolutely minimal, so forget it.

blackaces13 · #10 10-17-2005, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need better odds for lower pp than higher ones, however, because you are significantly more likely to be facing an overset with 22 than with TT. While your implied odds can make up discrepancies preflop and make it profitable to play 33 with say, 4 other players, hitting your set only to have another player hit another set does tend to reduce this.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is so rare to lose set over set that the effect of such hands is probably rather small. More a factor as to why hands like 77 are better than 33 is that you make more winning straights with the higher PPs since you can make the high-end of a 4 card sraight and when the board pairs it is more often lower than your PP rendering you less vulnerable to an overfull by a flopped 2 pair.