J5s in the BB, not the draw I was looking for...

Bodhi · #1 09-13-2005, 04:35 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero...

How many outs do I have here? I need the full five to draw profitably, but is that realistic? I'm not sure how great my implied odds are because even if I hit my card on the turn, the river could sink me with a diamond (maybe), or a card that fills up a gutshot (maybe). I feel like I'm a nit if I don't call here after calling the raise in the first place.

benwood · #2 09-13-2005, 04:43 AM

You're right to let it go.No matter how you hit your hand, you can't bet it with authority. This is what leads to reverse implied odds.

Knoler · #3 09-13-2005, 04:44 AM

Peel. I'd estimate that your 5 out cards are probably good for a little more than 4 outs, and you're getting 10.5:1. (and UTG will usually come along, too...)

My estimate above is somewhat unscientific -- I just figure that if the flush draw is out there, you have 3 outs, and if the flush draw isn't out there, you have 5 outs. The average is 4 outs, but it's more likely that the flush draw is *not* out there. Therefore, a little more than 4 outs.

-Brian

toss · #4 09-13-2005, 06:56 AM

He has 4 outs if theres a flush draw. (2 non[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5s and 2 non[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Js) Implied odds make it a call getting 10:5 with 4 outs and we may have more outs if no one is drawing to the flush. Reverse implied odds come from someone making their flush or if someone has us dominated. Its probably a call for me.

Nick C · #5 09-13-2005, 07:10 AM

I think I'd peel, though if either MP2 or UTG+1 has a better jack, then that's unfortunate.

There is also some chance you're currently ahead. However, if you are ahead, you probably have a lot of cards to dodge. And, besides that, you're frequently going to get pushed off of your hand on the turn anyway. So the possibility that you're ahead isn't worth a whole lot, I'm thinking.

If you folded the flop, I think that's okay. Maybe it would even be best. I'm not sure.

#6 09-13-2005, 10:38 AM

I am folding here most of the time. On top of the flushdraw there will most often be at least a gutshot we have to dodge, and the two pairs will not hold up all the time when the flush/straight doesn't come in. The J might be dominated, which means we have no clean outs. I therefore think counting this as 4 outs is too optimistic, when you include the reverse implied odds.

Consequently, I prefer to fold and wait for a better hand, unless the opposition is absolutely horrible, in which case I might peel another card.

I play most suited cards in the BB if I can close the betting getting 1:7, but I dont think that implies having to continue on this flop.