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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:04 PM
caretaker1 caretaker1 is offline
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Default $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t234)
Hero (t1030)
BB (t6736)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero ...</font>

Two other facts:
The short stack had actually left the table and was being blinded.
The last time I had raised all-in, the big stack called me with 9-7.
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:07 PM
splashpot splashpot is offline
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Location: Needham, MA
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Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

I push anyways.
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:21 PM
IdiotVig IdiotVig is offline
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Posts: 7
Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t234)
Hero (t1030)
BB (t6736)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero ...</font>

Two other facts:
The short stack had actually left the table and was being blinded.
The last time I had raised all-in, the big stack called me with 9-7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if I'm doing this right, but from values I plugged in to the ICM calculator:

Assuming shortie does not pick up connection next hand, if you muck this hand and next, letting villain pick up the short stack gives you a stack of 880 to 7120, for EV of 0.322. Pushing and winning (and let's assume you subsequently muck from the button next hand so big stack picks up shortie's blind) gives you a stack of 2060 to 5940, for an EV of .3515.

So, assuming you push and win X% of the time, you need:

.3515X + .2(1-X) &gt;= .322

Or, about 80.5% of the time. &lt;smarmy&gt;So, verify that villain has, in fact, been dealt one card, and that it matches one of your own before pushing.&lt;/smarmy&gt;

And, if I got that wrong, well, at least my name's fitting, and y'all will enjoy hopping in the 22s against me.

Edit: Not going to try tweaking for if shortie reconnects. My head hurts enough as is.
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  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:24 PM
tjh tjh is offline
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Posts: 176
Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

I hate dealing with "AWAY" players.

Sure they can be a real windfall but they usually reconnect the minute you push 2-7.

It seems like the big stack is going to call. Looks like the small stack is busting out.

I fold.

It is close though, very close.

--
tjh
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  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:25 PM
Freudian Freudian is offline
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Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

ITM, I push this every time.
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  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:39 PM
IdiotVig IdiotVig is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if I'm doing this right, but from values I plugged in to the ICM calculator:

Assuming shortie does not pick up connection next hand, if you muck this hand and next, letting villain pick up the short stack gives you a stack of 880 to 7120, for EV of 0.322. Pushing and winning (and let's assume you subsequently muck from the button next hand so big stack picks up shortie's blind) gives you a stack of 2060 to 5940, for an EV of .3515.

So, assuming you push and win X% of the time, you need:

.3515X + .2(1-X) &gt;= .322

Or, about 80.5% of the time. &lt;smarmy&gt;So, verify that villain has, in fact, been dealt one card, and that it matches one of your own before pushing.&lt;/smarmy&gt;



[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit. Completely forgot about the time he folds. Okay. Your EV when you push and villain folds is .3375. Let's assume he looks you up on top 25% of hands (is that enough of a range to include 97o? i don't have SNGPT in front of me right now).

So, X is actually dependent on the calling range (big surprise). Let's say villain looks you up 25% of the time. This means that the formula is actually:

.75(.3375) + .25[(.3515X + .2(1-X))] &gt;=.322

So, you'd need to win only 62% of the time.

I guess this type of problem is highly sensitive to the breadth of the calling range.

I also wish I had SNGPT at work.

Edit: Of course, trying to determine the appropriate calling range is probably why OP posted in the first place. [forehead smack] Sorry, y'all.
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:01 PM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist


I would push...they will fold a lot anyway.
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:31 PM
caretaker1 caretaker1 is offline
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Default Re: $22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

I folded and ended up finishing 2nd. Hmm.
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