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  #1  
Old 12-22-2005, 04:05 AM
hobbsmann hobbsmann is offline
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Default AJo 15/30 hand

reads: HJ is a lagtard (49/18/2.5 through 60 hands) and CO is an idiot (45/8/1.7 through 100 hands).

Good, bad, or meh on the flop?

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.67 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls.
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  #2  
Old 12-22-2005, 04:35 AM
whodaman whodaman is offline
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

i think its pretty bad.
You have the 4 ten outs. Than 1 for the backdoor flush. But can you give yourself any other outs? Your only getting ~8.5-1 on your $$. Thats close but your not closing the action here and may have to pay 1 or 2 more bets on the flop.
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  #3  
Old 12-22-2005, 08:29 AM
Dazarath Dazarath is offline
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

Even if I were closing the action, I'd have a hard time calling that. Since there's a high possibility of it getting 3-bet or even capped, I'd say it's an easy fold.
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  #4  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:08 AM
BigEndian BigEndian is offline
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

You played with MP3, so maybe you thought it was likely he wouldn't jam the flop, but his numbers say otherwise. If you felt he was only going to call, I think the call is ok.

- Jim
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  #5  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:32 AM
mikeyKay mikeyKay is offline
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

I think a call seems fine. At worst you are getting 13.6+4+4=21.6, 4:21.6 = 1:5.4 on the flop. With 5 outs you are 1:3.9 on making your hand. I'd throw some chips in...maybe a bad idea?

-mike
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  #6  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:44 AM
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

I think the flop call is close, because since they both likely have a hand, should you hit your gutshot your implied odds are huge. Also, if you run into a flush draw, you have another chance to hit the gutshot.
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  #7  
Old 12-22-2005, 12:48 PM
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

[ QUOTE ]
At worst you are getting 13.6+4+4=21.6, 4:21.6 = 1:5.4 on the flop. With 5 outs you are 1:3.9 on making your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
This looks like pretty good analysis to me, except that 2 ruuning clubs is significantly less than 1 full "out", no? especially since the 10c would be double counted and the 5c is potential disaster... On the other hand, 5.4/1 pot odds is worst case scenario. If 3 bet doesn't come you're up to 8.8/1 Seems like odds for call are definitely there to me, and that's not counting the off chance that hand less than nuts eeks out a win...
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  #8  
Old 12-22-2005, 01:35 PM
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

Backdoor flush is 1.5 outs if you intend to give up on turn should you not run into the flush draw
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  #9  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:55 PM
SGS SGS is offline
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

I don't know I think I let this go on the flop. Even lag tards and idiots get hands sometimes. Not to mention it could come back capped to you and then you are really hatin it.

SGS
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  #10  
Old 12-22-2005, 03:10 PM
imashyboi imashyboi is offline
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Default Re: AJo 15/30 hand

I'd call getting close to 8-1. Though there is a possibility that this flop might get capped I'll still call it. We have 4 outs for a gutshot and a extra 1 for the backdoor flush. Both draws are to the nuts though we still need to be concerned if the board pairs cause he might have a big pair. I don't think we should be scared of the flush draw but it should still be noted.

On the turn the pot + implied odds will be large enough to try and hit the gutshot. What really concerns me here is when someone raises after you call because this change the odds your getting. If the turn card doesn't help the board, smooth call. If the PFR raises after you call then your surely behind against two-pair or a set.
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