Overbet bluff, NL$400

wtfsvi · #1 11-19-2005, 12:23 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Villain is 28/5/1.3. Seems straightforward and decent, and when he checks behind on the turn I'm pretty confident that means he wants to play a small pot. I haven't been at the table very long, but villain has probably picked up on me being very loose (40/30 or so during the hands I've had at the table.) So he probably thinks I suck.

Just plain stupid? :

Hero ($407.70)
BB ($83.20)
UTG ($550.04)
MP ($353.60)
CO :#A500AF(villain)/ ($713.62)
Button ($367.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, CO :#A500AF(villain)/ raises to $15, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls $13, 1 fold.

Flop: ($34) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $25, villain raises to $50, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($134) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, villain checks.

River: ($134) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $342.7 (all-in)

gol4pro · #2 11-19-2005, 12:35 AM

Why not just pot it? If you bet 130, this has to work slightly better than 50% of the time. By betting 340, this has to work at least 75%.

Honestly, I don't see any hands folding to the overbet that call a PSB.

DoomSlice · #3 11-19-2005, 12:40 AM

I don't like it AT ALL. I see Villain as having a strong 8 50% of the time, a flush 20% of the time, and something else the rest of the time... not the odds you need.

kongo_totte · #4 11-19-2005, 12:44 AM

I actually like the bet more than a PSB. A 40/30 player(I imagine your post-flop-agg is ridicoulus aswell) will bet that river almost w/ any 2 after that action, and I for one would be very loose with my calling standards. But the over bet is very scary and alot of players freeze up when faced with it, atleast decent ones. I think villian will fold way above 50% of the time here, however I don't he'll fold as often as he needs to.

I c/f river.

Also, I'd wait for this spot until I have a hand that has absolutely no chance of winning a show down. If the river is checked through, your 8 might very well be best. So checking is +EV. Which means your bluff does not only have to be +EV, but more +EV than checking is for it to be correct.

wtfsvi · #5 11-19-2005, 12:01 PM

5% pfr, and he has a strong 8 50% of the time? wtf. And why would he check behind on the turn with a flush? I think you need to do some serious thinking about how you read hands. It should be fairly obvious that overpairs are villains most likely holdings (including JJ of course). And missed overs. Or overs that hit the jack on the river.

emil3000 · #6 11-19-2005, 12:26 PM

How do you feel about a bet of 250? Still looks scary, and you have to succeed a lot less.

wtfsvi · #7 11-19-2005, 12:33 PM

I didn't consider that. I think that sounds like a good idea. (Or better idea than my bet anyway.)

emil3000 · #8 11-19-2005, 12:40 PM

This is a spot where I would at least seriously consider a bluff. His hand is well defined, and it's obvious he's uncomfortable as well, like you wrote. With your image he'd probably look you up for pot size, with a more reasonable image a pot size bet might be better. So if you're gonna bluff I think you need to overbet.

Some players tend to be calling stations even with tight stats.

Hmm, I don't know.

ginko · #9 11-19-2005, 01:57 PM

If he thinks you are bad, he's not gonna put you on the 6 or the flush the way you played the hand.

Also, have you gone allin yet with villian present at the table? This move might work very often if you have never done anything like this. Otherwise he might get wise.

J river might give him the boat too.

However, his vpip is 28 and he is in the CO, so his range is probably pretty wide. Any pair, any SC, any 1gapper, any 2 big cards.

wtfsvi · #10 11-19-2005, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he thinks you are bad, he's not gonna put you on the 6 or the flush the way you played the hand.

[/ QUOTE ] Or the boat. Why not? I wiffed my turn cr damnit. It would sure be a bad play if I had it [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, have you gone allin yet with villian present at the table?

[/ QUOTE ] No.

[ QUOTE ]
J river might give him the boat too.

[/ QUOTE ] Yes, it might. It might also give him a pair though.

[ QUOTE ]
However, his vpip is 28 and he is in the CO, so his range is probably pretty wide. Any pair, any SC, any 1gapper, any 2 big cards.

[/ QUOTE ] His pfr is 5, so I doubt it's that wide.