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  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:39 PM
joker122 joker122 is offline
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Default river raise?

55/22.7/1.78 after 70 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?
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  #2  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:48 PM
gharp gharp is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

[ QUOTE ]
river raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely. I'd probably cap too. If he happens to have AA, them's the breaks. I think AQ/AK/88 and probably even A8 are all consistent with his play.
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  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:49 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

Looks like you're ahead of AQx3 and 88x6, and behind AAx6 (I don't think many other hands get there, even from an aggressive opponent? I'm not sure if any of these need discounting?). So we're ahead 9/15 = 60% of the time. We're calling if 3-bet, so we need to be ahead 66% of the time to value-raise.

So I call it.
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  #4  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:51 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

3 combos AA.
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  #5  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:51 PM
gharp gharp is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

[ QUOTE ]
and behind AAx6

[/ QUOTE ]
You're overcounting those, there's only 3.

Edit: Damn, I'm slow...
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  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:52 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

Do you expect a 22pfr to 3-bet an UTG raise with A8s here? Do you expect AK to cap the turn? These both seem close to me, but I'm not sure they do.
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  #7  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:53 PM
LoaferGee12 LoaferGee12 is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

Yeah, I cap it up too. Like others said, it's going to be AQ/88 here much more often. This guy looks like he may be a LAG too so it may even be something worse
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  #8  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:54 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

Right, we're ahead of 88x3 too. So we're ahead of that range exactly enough for a 0EV raise. If we can include a discounted AK or A8 then it'll push it into slight +EV.
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  #9  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:58 PM
LoaferGee12 LoaferGee12 is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect a 22pfr to 3-bet an UTG raise with A8s here? Do you expect AK to cap the turn? These both seem close to me, but I'm not sure they do.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy looks like he may be capable of either of these.
Keep in mind, we're 4handed.
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  #10  
Old 12-29-2005, 09:10 PM
gharp gharp is offline
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Default Re: river raise?

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect a 22pfr to 3-bet an UTG raise with A8s here? Do you expect AK to cap the turn? These both seem close to me, but I'm not sure they do.

[/ QUOTE ]
LoaferGee already said it but we're 4-handed, so our UTG raise really looks like a steal from the CO. I think 3-betting A8 isn't unreasonable, especially if it's suited (I probably would then).

The turn cap looks a little spewy with AK but a steal situation can really bring out the inner LAGtard in some people.
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