I guess it's time to get it all in -- flop bluff

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing AA this way is stupid? Are you serious?

Should I raise to $45 and fold to a push? Just call the $8 bet in the $50+ pot?

Your point about his odds with Ac 4c are quite valid. It's a razor thin call. If I can have a pure bluff even 5% of the time though you are correct, he should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you routinely overbet the pot with AA on every pot you are going to get stacked quite often....people don't call large overbets with anything except good hands....those that can generally beat 1 pair. That is my point. The largest pot I ever won at NL 100 was a guy that open pushed a ragged flop for $500 with AA and I called with $300 with a flopped set of 3's. You didn't open push here, but his bet of $8 into the large pot is either leading a draw, that might call anyway, or a bet to induce a big raise from you, which it did...either one of the hands calls you has you smoked unless he's doing it with 2c 4c or something. People that overplay AA and KK are the reason that set farming works.

The only hands villain can put you on here is AcKc (assuming he doesn't have something similar), JJ-AA I'd think. There is no way you have TT because you'd have to be an idiot to play it this way, and it's unlikely you raised with a 3 in your hand. It comes down to him either deciding to call with a draw, calling you with a 3, or thinking his pocket pair is good...it really just depends on his read of you.

Edit - For what it's worth, if i'm villain in this hand, i'm much more likely to call a push than a raise to $70. One looks like a desperate bluff, one doesn't. Whether I call depends on lots of things, my read of you, whether i've seen you do this before, and what the circumstances of it were, how good i'm running that day....if I'm up 500 and my instincts seem to be dead on that day, I might call if I think you are bluffing, etc. All that factors in, but IMO the large overbet looks like someone that wants to get a fold, not someone that wants action.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Please show me one post where I say someone got lucky that opponents called an overbet. I guarantee it never happened. I can easily show you several posts where I have made overbets with the nuts, though.

[scdavis0]

The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF? When did I say you should be finding a spot to get away from AA? I said that the raise would be fine if you had ace high!

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
Please show me one post where I say someone got lucky that opponents called an overbet. I guarantee it never happened. I can easily show you several posts where I have made overbets with the nuts, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say you.. I said on this forum.

At these limits it's fine to only overbet with the nuts and never ever ever as a bluff. However, does this imbalance in your game worry you at all? I try to keep my game balanced even if I suspect my opponents may not care, and I may take a ding on my winrate.

I'd like to be playing 10/20 by this time next year.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF? When did I say you should be finding a spot to get away from AA? I said that the raise would be fine if you had ace high!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not talking to you. Talking to above poster.

I have a lazy habit of clicking reply on the latest entry.

you're leaving yourself out to dry here if he does make the call.. no real backup plan because anything he calls with will leave you dead.

i would need at least one overcard to the 10 to make this move, especially with all the dead money in the pot, he may decide to make this call with something like A10, K10, J10, any 3 for sure.

unless this guy is extremely tight, im not making this move. it seems like you were determined to win this pot from the beginning at all costs... bad thing to find yourself doing. fold and maybe take a break.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
you're leaving yourself out to dry here if he does make the call.. no real backup plan because anything he calls with will leave you dead.

i would need at least one overcard to the 10 to make this move, especially with all the dead money in the pot, he may decide to make this call with something like A10, K10, J10, any 3 for sure.

unless this guy is extremely tight, im not making this move. it seems like you were determined to win this pot from the beginning at all costs... bad thing to find yourself doing. fold and maybe take a break.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate the feedback, and I do like to have an out when I bluff.

I disagree with your analysis that I was determined to win the pot from the onset. This is a very rare situation where someone weak leads for 1/5th pot into three opponents, and no one else peels a card off.

This situation is too good for an all-in bluff (and show) to just fold. If there were any strong players at that table that have notes, I will get action from them forever.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are suggesting that if I had AA I should be finding a spot to get away from this hand is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that you should be looking for a spot to get away from AA...I never said that. Let me repeat it one time for the cheap seats:

"massively overbetting the pot with 1 pair even AA, is STUPID".

I'm not talking about the bluff now, i'm talking about how i'd play AA on this flop. But if you had AA, nothing calls that you beat, everything that beats you calls...do you get how that works? If you flop two pair on a flop of 762 and the guy that raised preflop reraises you all in, are you calling, YES. If you flop top pair on that same flop and you get raised all in are you folding, YES....you make it impossible for them to make a mistake against you....get it? If you only make a normal sized raise with your aces and all he has is top pair, he *might* call that in case you are bluffing. See how that works. Seriously, if you hope to be playing 10/20 by next year I don't see it happening if you don't have a firm grasp of some fairly basic concepts.

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
every. single. hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

hes ahead of 24.