Longest feasible downswing for solid player

[Jurollo]

Just curious as I am about 10K into August and am posting horrid numbers so far (barely profitable) and am seemingly getting outdrawn a shite ton. What is the longest feasible downswing a fairly solid player can expect before it becomes more than simply variance?
~Justin

[shant]

I think if it goes past 200-250BB down you should start to worry.

[cdxx]

two bad losing days in a row usually makes me worry (50+ BB). i regroup, do fewer tables, anything else i can do to feel comfortable again, re-evaluate my cold-calls, my limping standards, replay some worst hands, see where i missed a bet.

[Jurollo]

I feel like I am playing fairly solid but still could be misapplying some techniques etc. If a well respected full ring player wants to look at my stats/hands from my PT database I may be willing to throw them $30 or $40 and I would lend any support I could to help you with MTTs
~Justin

[cdxx]

oh yes, i usually do about 1K hands a day, since pulling marathon sessions is -EV. -50 BB/day is significant enough to question your play.

[Jurollo]

It isn't really a downswing it is that through the first 10K hands this month I am winning at like .5BB/100. I am getting killed by suckouts, etc and am curious if some of the players here have had long term plateaus like this before?
~Justin

[SomethingClever]

Haven't heard of any longer than 50,000 hands, but I know at least 2 very solid players who've had those.

I'm barely beating the game over my last 50k, but I'm not nearly as good as either of the players I'm thinking of.

[cdxx]

aahhh... i understand now. 10K hands is fairly long though. so this is not a desperate situation like losing 50BB. for me however, it would be an incentive to do a refresher of a favorite book, or 1-tabling so i can concentrate better. i was a losing player for 6 months, read up on some preflop strategy, encountered a plateau for the next 6 months, mostly at .5/1 and 1/2. then improved to over 1BB/100.

[flair1239]

There is a thread on this in general holdem. It should not be too far back.

El Diablo has reprted a 30,000 hand break even streak in the past.

I am recovering from a 540BB downswing. If you go from the start of the swing until full recovey, It will probably be about 18,000 hands.

What you can epect has a lot to do with the games you play. Anything over 100BB I usually look at my play pretty close. During the last 100BB of my big downswing, I was looking at every hand.

But I guess a 10,000 hand plateau would not make me get too worried, unless there was something really off.

[flair1239]

This is the one I was thinking of. But it is "most BB lost in one day".

Kind of the same thing though. You will get the picture.


This one