Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play

[fizzleboink]

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I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

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Ok so since people are still saying you should call I'll put in some more reasonable numbers into my formula.

A = 0.8
B = 0.4 (I think 0.7 is way too high)
C = 1
D = 0.75

Hero needs to be ahead only ~56% of the time to make raising the correct play. TheMetetron has already said it is greater than 90%... but even if you disagree with that, surely it is higher than 56%!