Full house sees nightmare river card, can you find a fold?

[paperboyNC]

Stats
SB is 32/17/1.1 (VPIP, PFR, AGGR) after 90 hands

The Hand

Absolute Poker $5/$10 (9 max, 5 handed). Back when they had the 2/5 blind structure. MP posts a blind of $5.

Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

<font color="maroon">Hero raises</font>, <font color="gray">MP (poster) folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls. <font color="gray">BB folds</font>.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
SB checks. <font color="maroon">Hero bets</font>. SB calls

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
SB checks. <font color="maroon">Hero bets</font>. <font color="maroon">SB raises</font>, <font color="maroon">Hero 3 bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (10 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
<font color="maroon">SB bets</font>. Hero?

My thoughts

When the SB check-raised the turn, he probably has a J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and when he donk bets the river. I guess I have to call here getting 11-1, but it might be a hand where I'm beat over 90% of the time.

[Nick C]

I would probably call, hoping SB was checkraise semibluffing a draw on the turn.

I guess based on his numbers, this possibility may not be all that likely, but I'm not good at folding boats and would be looking for reasons to call.

Actually, though, against an unknown, I think SB will be checkraising something besides a jack or eight (a pocket pair is also possible, along with a draw) often enough in this pot that began heads-up for you to call the river.

I would expect to lose, though.

[BoxLiquid]

That's a real tough laydown. I'm sure you're beat.

[lighterjobs]

the only thing you can beat here is a nut flush draw.

I would make a crying call hoping he had Axs.

[Justin A]

This is a pretty easy fold.

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy fold.

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If we consider a "pure bluff" 5-10% of the time, don't you have to start thinking about calling? I'd like some reasoning behind your easy fold.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we consider a "pure bluff" 5-10% of the time, don't you have to start thinking about calling? I'd like some reasoning behind your easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pure bluffs don't check-call the flop, checkraise the turn, call a 3-bet, and lead the river very often. Certainly not ~8% of the time.

Rob

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we consider a "pure bluff" 5-10% of the time, don't you have to start thinking about calling? I'd like some reasoning behind your easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost never a pure bluff.

He's got a J with a weak kicker like 98% here.

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
He's got a J with a weak kicker like 98% here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is cold-calling with this hand in the small blind?

I would flat call here. Your opponent may have you beaten, but I would hate to potentially throw away the best hand