A Plea For Help (long, stats post)

[DMBFan23]

Background: I started playing last year, .10/.20. I played 50K hands, between .5/1, 1/2, 2/4, and 3/6 full. I had good BB/100s at all these limits but obviously the samples were pretty insignificant (just like my 5/10 sample) I also played 5K each of 1/2 and 2/4 6max interspersed in there. then after 3/6 I was ready to move up but didn't want to play full. so I gave 5/10 6max a shot.

fast forward, I'm 21K hands in and I'm not up. I know this is still a small sample, but that doesn't mean I can't look for leaks. I know you guys hate stats posts, but I want to see if there's anything glaring here because I can't find huge leaks just looking over hands.

This is the longest I've ever run breakeven, and I'm not willing to admit I'm a losing player yet. my ego is too big for that. I know I should be winning. I see the garbage that goes runner runner. I see the missed value bets. I see the overplayed hands. and yet everytime I win I find a way to give it all back.

So, if you guys don't see anything, that's cool. I'm just looking for some way to rationalize this.

I think I may not be going to showdown enough but then I decide to call down and I'm always always beaten. I know you'll say "post hands" but what sorts of situations did you find yourself calling down more/less when you started playing short?

anyways, here are the stats. thanks in advance if you respond, I appreciate it. Even if you have noticed something from my hand posts (I don't post that many because they don't really get replies, I need to hire bisonbison to see how he gets 80+ replies to a one word post) then throw that out here too. anything really, I'm getting kind of desperate.

P.S. if you're gonna say something dumb and sarcastic, this is not the thread for you. please no 'quit poker it's rigged' or 'I told you you shouldnt defend your BB with 56s' or 'kill yourself' or whatever.












and finally for the bad beat portion of the post:

[kamelion44]

DMB, I just went through an even longer breakeven stretch at 5-10 (actually all our stats are the same except my VP is slightly lower). I took a break, read a bunch of SH stuff, and then went down to $3-6 to get back confidence. I know that's pretty standard advice (take a break, reread stuff, drop down) but it's worked for me so far.

[kahntrutahn]

1) Your W$SD for bet/raise/check-raise should be ~70%... yours is ~%80... coupled with your lower river AGF, I'd say you are missing value bets

2) Defend your SB a bit more

3) Flop AGF might be a tad high... perhaps try auto-betting less into a 3+ field

4) FYI I had a 19k breakeven stretch... I'm winning for about 1.9BB/100 over 60k, the stretch was in the middle

[7ontheline]

You should seriously consider killing yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, I noticed two things immediately.

1) Defend your small blind more. It's not terrible, but you're too tight here.

2) GET TO SHOWDOWN MORE. You are either folding the river too much or not calling down enough. (Probably a little of both) You are winning a decent amount >50% of the time at showdown - if you bring this number down by bringing up your SD%, you will likely increase your profits.

Finally, you could easily still be a winner in this game - I would wager that with a few tweaks you could be a winner because your stats are not way out of line. You may very well have just had a cold streak for a while. I had a 10k hand breakeven streak and I've been about a 3 BB winner ever since I started 5/10 (still not that many hands, I guess, but oh well)

[sweetjazz]

Yeah 20K is still small enough not to panic, and I've read a lot of your microlimit posts from months ago, so you definitely understand the game.

I think kahn's advice sounds pretty good, and you aren't going to showdown often enough. Remember that when you call down on the turn, say, you typically only need to win 20-25% of the time to turn a profit (depending on the circumstances to that point).

Also, are you putting enough effort into game selection. Especially when you are running bad, it is important to take advantage of the fact that you can always sit at a table where at least one player is absolutely horrible, and often there are several other quite bad players there as well.

BTW, I think your preflop numbers look good, so I think you're good on that score.

My guess is that you are definitely a greater than 1 BB/100 winner in the game, but downswings are great opportunities to tweak your game (something that can only be said in hindsight after you are no longer experiencing it, I realize).

One other possibility, given your high aggression factor on the flop and your low Went to SD, is that you may not be peeling enough on the flop. Don't forget to consider the quality of your overcards as well as estimate the kind of implied odds you are getting.

The last suggestion is that you should not be multitabling too heavily. Concentrate on one (maybe two) tables, and playing longer sessions where you have time to get reads on your opponents. You will see your winrate go up and I think it will improve your overall play if you do this often enough, because you'll have a better sense of what the optimal "default" line should be against relative unknowns if you have carefully studied a wide sample of the players in the game.

Anyway, good luck and keep at it.

[PokerBob]

IMO your folded to river bet is way too high. Everything else looks ok to me. you may want to tightehn up a bit if variance is bugging you. FWIW I have 165K hands since March, I have had 2 stretches of at least 30K hands where I was break-even.

[Jeff W]

Your stats are pretty. Folded to River Bet of 45% is too high, though.

Don't quit 5/10 yet. I gaurantee you're just running bad.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]

2) GET TO SHOWDOWN MORE. You are either folding the river too much or not calling down enough. (Probably a little of both) You are winning a decent amount >50% of the time at showdown - if you bring this number down by bringing up your SD%, you will likely increase your profits.


[/ QUOTE ]

What's the optimal went to sd% ? Also, what does poker tracker consider to be a 'folded SB/BB to steal'? Does it count one every time someone raises from the button?

[Surfbullet]

Hey DMB,

One of the toughest parts of SH is the variance. I just came out of a 39,000 hand break-even stretch that commenced when I moved up to 10/20. Adjustments needed to be made, and I was having trouble making the correct ones.

As for recommendations: focus on table selection. This is the easiest way to improve your winrate, and it only takes a little bit of extra effort.

Other things...

-Continuation bets (especially in position) against 3 or more players rarely have as much fold equity as one would hope, and we often end up paying an extra SB when c/r'd. Checking the flop sometimes helps mix up our play and will make players think twice before going for a c/r. Do this with weak-ish draws (gutshots, backdoors), or hopeless hands.

-When increasing your WTSD, do it in HU hands, not 4 way pots. Calling down with middle/3rd pair HU on the flop after being raised is okay. Doing the same thing with 4 players is disaster.

-Respect the passive player's turn raises. Again, especially multiway.

-Call more - hopefully you are using PV or GT+, so you'll know who the aggressive players are. Let L/TAGs continuation-bet hands that are often UI when you spike a pair.

Good luck bro. You can do it.

Surf

[MicroBob]

Am I the only one who thinks he may be defending his BB against a steal a bit much?


I completely agree with play 1 or 2 tables and REALLY focusing on that.
This is what I did to get my game to a point to where I don't COMPLETELY suck anymore. I feel like I'm really 'feeling' the game much better.