AA, monochrome flop

[M.B.E.]

This 10-20 hand I played yesterday is similar to Hand No. 3 in Jim Brier's column on flopping one suit.

I have A[img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] two off the button. Four limpers, I raise, cutoff (an aggressive superloose player) calls, button folds, blinds and limpers call. Eight-way action, 16 small bets in the pot.

FLOP: K[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me. I bet. Cutoff folds. Small blind, a good player, raises. Everyone else folds and I three-bet. SB four-bets and I call. The turn brings a fourth spade:

TURN: [ K[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ] T[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets out. If she holds a spade I'm drawing dead. There's 13 big bets in the pot. What's my play? Results later.

[budman]

I say bail out on this one.

[PokerPL]

I would have bet the flop,called the check riase,and if i am heads up ONLY would i call him down when the 4 suited shows up.

[M.B.E.]

I thought about checking the flop because with so many people in someone could well have flopped a flush. However I bet because I might have had the best hand and didn't want to give anyone a free card. Also, as I mentioned, the player on my immediate left was superloose and aggressive. If he had a king (with any kicker) he would have raised me, and I was hoping he would raise to make it expensive for any drawing hands to call. Unfortunately he folded, but the SB raised. I was happy to see everyone else fold to me. I figured that the SB probably wouldn't raise with a flush, but she would raise with a big spade, two pair, or a set. Maybe AK, KQ, or KJ as well, even without a spade (such a raise would be a good play because I might have AQ). Of course she may have had a baby flush. In any event, I three-bet for value because I figured my AA was most likely better than her hand.

On the turn I think it is close between raising and folding. When she bets out with the four spades on board, after four-betting me on the flop, she very likely has a flush. But then again, there are now 13 bets in the pot. The probability that I have the best hand is not great, but I think it's greater than 1/14=7.1%. Of course if she's bluffing, and she bluffs again on the river, it costs me two big bets in total. If I raise, I don't know whether she'd fold a small spade. She would certainly call with two pair or a set, and she would fold any one-pair hand. With the ace of spades she would three-bet. She might also three-bet with a set but I doubt it.

Given these factors, I think my best play was to raise the turn and fold if she three-bet. (But against a player who would have certainly called my raise with any spade, I think the best play would have been to fold the turn.)

In the actual hand, I called the turn -- by far the worst play of my three options.

Results of the hand later.

[skp]

She? Who is it?

Anyway, her flop 4 bet would tell me that she has a set, a non-nut flush or AK with the Ace of Spades. If I were the sb, I would bet out with any of these hands rather than going for a checkraise but anyway...

On the turn, most players at the Holiday Inn would check a small flush or a set (i.e. given your flop 3 bet). I think you are hosed and should fold.

Raising may work only in the event that she has the small flush and folds (which is doubtful). If she has two pairs or a set, she will call that raise and although she may, in theory, fold on the river, I doubt that you would bet your hand on the river if a blank comes so that really doesn't help you much (unless you snag a spade and chop the pot or if her K9 gets counterfeited etc.)

Indientally, 6 players folded on the flop. Obviously, none of them have the Ace of Spades. So, there only 34 unknown cards from which she could have the Ace of spades. The conditional probablility of her having the Ace of Spades is, of course, much higher.

Anyway, this is againt the typical HI player. Some of the yahoos of course don't play very rationally and therefore, calling or raising might be better. But against most playersat the HI, I would fold on the turn here.

[M.B.E.]

Yes, you're probably right that folding the turn would have been best. Your point about her being a bit more likely to have the ace of spades because the six players who mucked on the flop didn't have it is well taken; I didn't consider that.

I'll tell you who this was when I see you.

As it turns out, she flopped a jack-high flush (the third nuts). Given that, her flop checkraise was a terrible play; it wouldn't drive out someone with the ace of spades, maybe not the queen of spades either. Why not check-call and hope to pick up overcalls from a couple of one-pair hands? Then again, she got enough action out of me to compensate for that!

[M.B.E.]

Turn was the T[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]. She bet, I called. River was a fifth spade (ironically the ace). She bet again; I stubbornly called hoping for half the pot. She showed J[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] for a flopped flush.