|
|
|
|
#1
11-27-2005, 08:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
Has anyone ever thought of maybe asking the poker sites directly?
I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it...PokerStars for example. Maybe saying you're from twoplustwo would help. This way you can possibly at least get a breakdown of ring games, SNG's, tournaments, with bonuses, without bonuses, etc. I don't know, just a thought. 
|
|
#2
11-27-2005, 09:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it...PokerStars for example. [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like some good publicity for a poker site: "Come play at our site. There is a 93% probability you will be a loser."
|
|
#3
11-28-2005, 12:21 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
I would hope a couple of the sites out there would be willing to answer it [/ QUOTE ] The 7-8% figure came from 2 seperate poker sites and was originally quoted by Jackpot Jay in an ESPN article.
|
|
#4
11-28-2005, 11:36 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
I'll explain the seemingly high number of winners in everyones PT database once again. (This should be in the FAQ on right about every forum!)
Let's say you have played 100000 hands and know you win 2BB/100 and have a standard deviation of 16BB/100. In my database I have 250 hands on you. It's not even 60% certain that you show up as a winner in my database. To get a 40/60 spread on winners/losers must require something like the average player to be atleast a 3BB/100 loser. A small homework to grind this idea in. Draw a bell curve, cut it out in two copies. Make a coordinate system on a piece of paper. Place one bell curve so that it has it's base on the horizontal line, and it's peak just to the right of the vertical axis. This is how the distribution over 100 hands looks for a winning player. A ~40% chunk of the curve lies to the left of 0, in the negative. Take the other curve and place on the same horizontal line, but with it's peak slightly to the left of the vertical axis. This is the distribution of a losing player. Some ~40% of all sets of 100 hands will look winning. The 40/60 spread doesn't actually require a single honest to god winning player to exist for it to appear in our data.
|
|
#5
11-28-2005, 12:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
Do we really have to talk about this every month? And why do people actually care?
|
|
#6
11-28-2005, 12:16 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
Do we really have to talk about this every month? And why do people actually care? [/ QUOTE ] Do you walk down the street and interrupt peoples conversations when you feel the conversation is worthless?
|
|
#7
11-28-2005, 12:19 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
Do we really have to talk about this every month? And why do people actually care? [/ QUOTE ] Must you come piss on this thread every month? Why do you care? Reading this I just realized people are citing Jackpot Jay as an authority on this topic based on what he said someone told him. I think we can disregard that piece of info as auhoritative.
|
|
#8
11-28-2005, 03:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
Rudbeack,
First, I posted a link to the one of the older threads, where this is extensively discussed. Second, you have to give some weight to the data compiled by the massive dataminers! [ QUOTE ] To get a 40/60 spread on winners/losers must require something like the average player to be atleast a 3BB/100 loser. [/ QUOTE ] Finally, given this statement by you, it should be fairly easy for you to understand why 40/60 is a close enough estimate of the true figure for it to be used. 3BB/100 is roughly equivalent to the rake (its actually slighly lower than this). The average player has no advantage over anyone else, and thus their distribution is mainly determined by the roughly equivalent distribution of cards. Thus you might expect a normal distribution of variance around the rake. A very small percentage of player have an advantage over their opponents, by better play! Which will slightly change the shape of the standard distribution.
|
|
#9
11-28-2005, 04:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
what about the actual winning players that show up as losers in your small sample? or in other words, the opposite, competing fact that you didnt take into account?
If the number is as low as some say, the reason is because the winners win so much more than the loser's lose. and the rake of course. the number i find astounding is that party made 400MM, and during the same period only paid out 38MM in withdrawals. is this true? I doubt very seriously they only paid out 38MM in withdrawals in a one year period...
|
|
#10
11-28-2005, 04:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: What percent of onliner poker players are profitable?
[ QUOTE ]
what about the actual winning players that show up as losers in your small sample? or in other words, the opposite, competing fact that you didnt take into account? If the number is as low as some say, the reason is because the winners win so much more than the loser's lose. and the rake of course. the number i find astounding is that party made 400MM, and during the same period only paid out 38MM in withdrawals. is this true? I doubt very seriously they only paid out 38MM in withdrawals in a one year period... [/ QUOTE ] Why do you find that amazing? Even the average "average" player probably only has a few hundred on their account to futz around with, how often do you think they withdraw? A lot of that discrepancy is probably all this float money.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
