To Those Successful MTT'ers: a Difficult Question about Stealing

[JohnG]

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If you do raise and somebody pushes, you usually can't call. Even when the math is right, it will usually present too great a risk.

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When the math is right, the math is right.

[Shaved87]

the correct answer here is to push.
this answer is based on two facts....let me explain.

fact one - you have been doing well which leads to fact two - pokerstars has pre-selected you to do well, so go for it.

online poker is about 40% percent skill and the rest is pre-selected results based on how much you are moving your mouse.

online poker sites preselect about 50 people to do well and if you aren't one of them, you might as well push in on the first hand and go watch porn.

pokerstars has been giving you good scenarios....here is one more, so trust it. pokerstars gave the table folding hands and you a stealing hand. TRUST IT. they gave that other poor sucker a good hand, so he pushed. but it's cool. go for it. he may even have aces. he may even flop a set for extra drama, but you'll hit that running jack-ten for the nuts, and the whole table will throw up.

haven't you ever been doing well in a tourney, then you get something like pocket deuces and lay it down to a standard raise thinking "i've been playing a lot of hands, i'll let this go." then like textbook, you flop a set of dueces? that's pokerstars saying, "hey bro, trust me, it's me and you to final table. now let's go bad-beat some people."

[bobbycharles]

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the correct answer here is to push.
this answer is based on two facts....let me explain.

fact one - you have been doing well which leads to fact two - pokerstars has pre-selected you to do well, so go for it.

online poker is about 40% percent skill and the rest is pre-selected results based on how much you are moving your mouse.

online poker sites preselect about 50 people to do well and if you aren't one of them, you might as well push in on the first hand and go watch porn.

pokerstars has been giving you good scenarios....here is one more, so trust it. pokerstars gave the table folding hands and you a stealing hand. TRUST IT. they gave that other poor sucker a good hand, so he pushed. but it's cool. go for it. he may even have aces. he may even flop a set for extra drama, but you'll hit that running jack-ten for the nuts, and the whole table will throw up.

haven't you ever been doing well in a tourney, then you get something like pocket deuces and lay it down to a standard raise thinking "i've been playing a lot of hands, i'll let this go." then like textbook, you flop a set of dueces? that's pokerstars saying, "hey bro, trust me, it's me and you to final table. now let's go bad-beat some people."

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So what you are saying is Pokerstars is completely rigged and it doesn't matter what you do? This is either the most depressing thing I have ever heard, or the most paranoid.

Have you never been in a B&M and had an incredible rush of cards where you could do no wrong? I guess the dealer preselected you to do well that day.

Are there any others with that opinion?

[CieloAzor]

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If you do raise and somebody pushes, you usually can't call. Even when the math is right, it will usually present too great a risk.

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When the math is right, the math is right.

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But bargains are easy to come by when the antes and blinds get large. If you can get 2 to 1 calling all-in with a 2 to 1 dog, you can probably get 2 to 1 with a coinflip a few hands later.

I'm not a big fan of calling off 3/4 of my stack and relegating myself to shortstack status as a 2 to 1 dog. I'd rather stay slightly above average and steal my chips back on the next hand.

If it were a cash game, the math is the math. In a tournament, 1st place isn't the only prize. When you're in or near the money (as you would normally be in a sitation like this), there are other considerations. I'm always in pursuit of first place so making these aggressive calls has knocked me out of many tournaments before my time. Calling all-ins with KQ seems to leave me in a dominated position about half the time, and I get tired of running into every AA or KK that gets dealt at the end. I prefer waiting for AQ or better before I call the larger and less desperate all-in reraises.

Sorry, that was disjointed I think. I'm playing and posting at the same time.

[JohnG]

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But bargains are easy to come by when the antes and blinds get large. If you can get 2 to 1 calling all-in with a 2 to 1 dog, you can probably get 2 to 1 with a coinflip a few hands later.

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If you fold the first hand, where you are not that big a stack in the first place, your stack is going to be that much smaller when you get the coinflip.

I also do not have the ability to guarantee myself a hand that gives me a coinflip or better a few hands later. I concentrate on what's on offer right there, right now.

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I'm not a big fan of calling off 3/4 of my stack and relegating myself to shortstack status as a 2 to 1 dog. I'd rather stay slightly above average and steal my chips back on the next hand.

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If you're getting 2-1 on the call, then someone was already at short stack status or we wouldn't be in this position. Or if it was post flop, we will have already committed a significant portion of our chips. Often, when the action has gone raise, re-raise allin preflop, we cannot be sure where we stand.

Also, folding in these close situations has a psychological effect. It can harm our stealing chances.

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If it were a cash game, the math is the math. In a tournament, 1st place isn't the only prize. When you're in or near the money (as you would normally be in a sitation like this), there are other considerations.

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At or near the money, you can fold the close gambles such as getting 2-1 as a 2-1 dog. The math supports this. Away from the big money, I prefer to call the close gambles like that, for psychological reasons. But there's nothing wrong with folding.

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Calling all-ins with KQ seems to leave me in a dominated position about half the time

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If that's the case, we are either making a bad read of their range of hands, or making a good read and a bad call. Against a range that leaves us dominated 1/2 the time, it is an easy fold unless the odds are attractive. The range of hands changes the calculation. So again, if the math is right, the math is right.

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I prefer waiting for AQ or better before I call the larger and less desperate all-in reraises.

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As that means their range is normally narrower, I would fold KQ every time. I would probably fold AQ also unless getting a good price. But against those stacks, I will also call with the KQ in situations where the read says they have a wider range. Again, if the math is right, the math is right.

[gsyme]

Your theory of preselection intrigues me. But of course, I've always known those sites were rigged, because you see the same people winning all the time. Coincidence? I think NOT.

[CieloAzor]

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If you fold the first hand, where you are not that big a stack in the first place, your stack is going to be that much smaller when you get the coinflip.

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Doesn't this work both ways? Say you call as a 2 to 1 dog and then wake up with AA soon afterwards. 2/3 of the time you won't be able to fully capitalize because you've already blown your chips on KQ. I'm sure patience must have some advantages, because I've blown the final tables of many a tournament for a lack of it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I'll stop advocating weak-tight play now. I don't make many of these folds anyway.

[JohnG]

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If you fold the first hand, where you are not that big a stack in the first place, your stack is going to be that much smaller when you get the coinflip.

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Doesn't this work both ways? Say you call as a 2 to 1 dog and then wake up with AA soon afterwards. 2/3 of the time you won't be able to fully capitalize because you've already blown your chips on KQ.

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But when you played as a 2-1 dog because you had a good price, and won, now you have a much bigger stack when you get the AA. You then double through with the AA, and now you have a huge stack. Much bigger than it would now be if you had folded the 2-1 shot despite the favourable price.

Even if I know 100% I'm getting AA on the next hand, I will usually take a good gamble for all my chips on the current hand. In the long run, it makes a big difference.

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I'm sure patience must have some advantages, because I've blown the final tables of many a tournament for a lack of it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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I don't consider it a matter of patience. More a matter of making the right decision.

[Dentist]

I'm not sure i agree with a pre-selected winner, but I do agree with the JUICED flop theory in tournaments to eliminate players faster, and do agree with the theory that your account is assigned a "luck rating".

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Those of you who didn't take Shaved87's post in jest with ensuing hilarity need to step away from your computer and enjoy some fresh air.

[JohnG]

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Those of you who didn't take Shaved87's post in jest with ensuing hilarity need to step away from your computer and enjoy some fresh air.

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Jest or not, there's some truth in it. It's why I found it funny.