Leaving money on the table with top set

[poker17]

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I'm sorry, but what the HELL are you guys talking about? (And others, too, not to single you guys out exclusively.) There is a MUCH greater chance that he is drawing near dead than that he has some super legitimate draw like OESD+Flush. And it doesn't follow at all that just because 'ur ahead' 'u gotta push'. The goal in this hand is to get as much money as possible into the middle. That is because you are VERY likely to be VERY much ahead. So you should call this raise.

What is villain's hand range? Smaller set seems decently likely. AK seems decently likely. Top two could be in his hand range. KQ could be there. KJ could be there. AA/QQ/JJ could be there. These are hands that are very VERY dead against OP here but will fold to a re-raise. If you just call, they are stuck on the turn. If they check/fold they will feel too weak. If they bet, they are pot committed.

And IF the flush or straight hits, and IF they were actually on that draw, THEN you have re-draws against them still. Pushing here is losing a lot of value here, IMO.

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I agree with you 100%, the only reason a push might be a better play, would be if you thought Villian had a VERY strong hand that he wouldnt laydown. If you flat called and a diamond hit on the turn it would probably slow the villian down causing you to lose out on value.

[PoBoy321]

Re-raise to about $180, which would leave him with about $210 behind in a $320 pot, then push any turn.

[gsyme]

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If the only hand he'll call my all-in with is the Q J , then that is precisely the hand I want him to have.

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If he has the QJs, you want him to FOLD, since the odds justify a call. And when he makes the correct decision, you lose money.

[Ghazban]

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I'm sorry, but what the HELL are you guys talking about? (And others, too, not to single you guys out exclusively.) There is a MUCH greater chance that he is drawing near dead than that he has some super legitimate draw like OESD+Flush. And it doesn't follow at all that just because 'ur ahead' 'u gotta push'. The goal in this hand is to get as much money as possible into the middle. That is because you are VERY likely to be VERY much ahead. So you should call this raise.

What is villain's hand range? Smaller set seems decently likely. AK seems decently likely. Top two could be in his hand range. KQ could be there. KJ could be there. AA/QQ/JJ could be there. These are hands that are very VERY dead against OP here but will fold to a re-raise. If you just call, they are stuck on the turn. If they check/fold they will feel too weak. If they bet, they are pot committed.

And IF the flush or straight hits, and IF they were actually on that draw, THEN you have re-draws against them still. Pushing here is losing a lot of value here, IMO.

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This is what I was thinking when I posted the hand in the first place (hence the title). However, the 15 scare cards I don't want to see (completing the straight and flush draws) might scare him just as much as they scare me and cause him to check/fold a smaller set or two pair. If I push now, I think a hand like a set or two pair is fairly likely to call. If he has AK, I don't know if I have any chance of making any more money off him anyway once I call the check-raise (unless, of course, he has the ace of diamonds and a 3rd diamond hits the turn, giving him TPTK with a redraw to the nut flush).

At the time, the most relevant piece of information I had was that he had chosen this moment to make his first check/raise of the day. I felt that he must need a very strong hand to do that and would be unable to lay it down if I came over the top. I wish I had also considered the fact that, if he had a set, he would come out firing on the turn and I could get it all in then.

[Ghazban]

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"I've never seen anybody correctly lay down a set in this game"

Are you telling me you have actually laid down a flopped set with NO already-made straight or flush on the board? If so, you are a better man that me- i never done it, and I cant think of a situation where I would have the guts to.

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No, I've never laid down any set in that game, actually. However, I was at a table once where a guy flashed me his bottom set as he folded putting one of the two fishies who were jamming the pot on a higher set (they both had TPNK). I only phrased it that way because I was going to say "I've never seen anybody lay down a set in this game" but, as I was typing I remembered that incident. I see the guy who folded his set every once in a while and I call him "set of threes" because I can never remember his name but I can't forget that hand.

[mgsimpleton]

also you can start with 139 dollars which is what i like to do - you start with 40, toke the dealer a dollar, then rebuy for another 100 because you're under 40.

[Los Feliz Slim]

My thinking was to push not because Hero is scared of the flush draw and wants to push it out, but that the flush card on the turn could scare Villain and kill (possibly) Hero's action. Hero has put Villain on a lower set and doesn't believe Villain is capable of mucking the lower set. So, if Hero believes he will be called and there is possibly less likelihood to get that same call on the turn, isn't the correct action to push?

[mgsimpleton]

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Tworooks:
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yep u gotta push. he's got a lower set, or possibly a huge draw with JQ diamonds. either way, ur still ahead.


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BillUCF:
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reraise. you have some of his flush outs covered w/ your FH draw. Play this as strong as possible.

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I'm sorry, but what the HELL are you guys talking about? (And others, too, not to single you guys out exclusively.) There is a MUCH greater chance that he is drawing near dead than that he has some super legitimate draw like OESD+Flush. And it doesn't follow at all that just because 'ur ahead' 'u gotta push'. The goal in this hand is to get as much money as possible into the middle. That is because you are VERY likely to be VERY much ahead. So you should call this raise.

What is villain's hand range? Smaller set seems decently likely. AK seems decently likely. Top two could be in his hand range. KQ could be there. KJ could be there. AA/QQ/JJ could be there. These are hands that are very VERY dead against OP here but will fold to a re-raise. If you just call, they are stuck on the turn. If they check/fold they will feel too weak. If they bet, they are pot committed.

And IF the flush or straight hits, and IF they were actually on that draw, THEN you have re-draws against them still. Pushing here is losing a lot of value here, IMO.

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i'm glad someone said it before i have to... pushing is something i would do rarely in this situation unless i had a STRONG read from the other player that he was STRONG.

USE POSITION!!!! Call this flop. He WILL come out firing on the turn (regardless of what card it is, imo) and THEN you will take his entire stack. If he is weak enough to check fold the turn he is definitely weak enough to lay down to an all in on the flop... and many times on a semi-bluff with Axd or something like that, he will fire on turn when he misses to follow up his check raise.

If he is strong enough to go all in on the flop, you will get his stack regardless of cards that come. Let him pay you for a hand not quite as strong.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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This is what I was thinking when I posted the hand in the first place (hence the title). However, the 15 scare cards I don't want to see (completing the straight and flush draws) might scare him just as much as they scare me and cause him to check/fold a smaller set or two pair.

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Good. Now this is some interesting discussion. Of course, I agree with the principle of getting in the money before your action gets killed. However, I don't think the straight cards are a problem. It would be pretty hard to put you on QJ after the preflop action. And it is hard to imagine that you are calling the flop check/raise with just a gutshot. And you can't have a pair AND the flush draw so I think that when you call the check/raise he is more likely to put you on AA/AK/KQ than he is to put you on the flush draw. If the flush blanks on the turn, then there is no problem, he will almost certainly bet and call your push. And if it does hit on the turn, he will still probably be more afraid of a naked diamond than he will be of the fact that you called the flop check/raise with just the flush draw so he will be very aggressive on the turn to make sure you have incorrect odds to draw to your backdoor flush.

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If I push now, I think a hand like a set or two pair is fairly likely to call. If he has AK, I don't know if I have any chance of making any more money off him anyway once I call the check-raise (unless, of course, he has the ace of diamonds and a 3rd diamond hits the turn, giving him TPTK with a redraw to the nut flush).


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On the contrary, I think that someone pushing over a check/raise shows a TON of strength and he will quite possibly fold a good hand. Throwing out a continuation bet, HU, and then flat calling a check/raise doesn't show NEARLY as much strength. You might even have QQ and think he is just testing you. If he has AK, I think there is a very good chance he fires again on the turn.

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At the time, the most relevant piece of information I had was that he had chosen this moment to make his first check/raise of the day. I felt that he must need a very strong hand to do that and would be unable to lay it down if I came over the top. I wish I had also considered the fact that, if he had a set, he would come out firing on the turn and I could get it all in then.

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If his check/raise shows a lot of strength, what does your push over it show? And I think it IS very important to note that he is not going to be check/folding the turn after check/raising the flop. I think he comes out firing on the turn almost every time here.

[schwza]

i'd guess he has a pretty big made hand. i think the best way to commit him is to call and then push-raise the turn. you risk a scare card coming to kill your action, but you also reduce some of the risk of villain making a "big" laydown with KQ.