Can I fold this??

guaranteedBluff · #1 10-30-2005, 04:58 PM

Villain is 77/16/1.3 hands. However, hadn't seen any preflop wildness like this. All-in, or fold?

Note: my image was uber tight... that is i'd played about 50 hands and hadn't really gotten much of anything

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 0.50/1.00$ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($104.30)
UTG ($122.30)
MP ($50.53)
CO ($122.05)
Button ($168.64)
SB ($171.63)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB (poster) raises to $2.5, Hero raises to $8, MP folds, Button folds, SB raises to $14.5, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($32) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($32) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $30

#2 10-30-2005, 05:06 PM

No, you can't fold this and you shouldn't have to ask. I would call and reraise all in when he bets again on the river. He is probably drawing dead.

If he does have AA, you are getting stacked, period. Set over set happens.

Godfather80 · #3 10-30-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 77/16/1.3 hands. However, hadn't seen any preflop wildness like this. All-in, or fold?

Note: my image was uber tight... that is i'd played about 50 hands and hadn't really gotten much of anything

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 0.50/1.00$ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($104.30)
UTG ($122.30)
MP ($50.53)
CO ($122.05)
Button ($168.64)
SB ($171.63)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB (poster) raises to $2.5, Hero raises to $8, MP folds, Button folds, SB raises to $14.5, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($32) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($32) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $30

[/ QUOTE ]

Push? I don't like calling because if he's drawing his outs are live. Any raise from you pot commits you. You can't fold this. If he has aces for set over set, so be it. You may drive off some hands you beat, but you probably won't make any more money off them on the river anyway.
I think lots of worse hands will call your push here. I wouldn't be surprised for Villain to call your push and turn over A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

guaranteedBluff · #4 10-30-2005, 05:42 PM

1) He 4-bet the flop. This has to count for something. He has, IMO, either AK (maybe 10%) or AA (60%) or KK (30%) given this (obviously KK is eliminated).

2) He knows that I have been playing uber tight, and so for me to reraise he must put me on KK, making AA all the more likely.

Everyone says "set-over-set happens", but it seems that a strong case could be made here to not let it happen.

#5 10-30-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2) He knows that I have been playing uber tight, and so for me to reraise he must put me on KK, making AA all the more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]
can you know for sure that he is even paying attention to you? he might just be playing his hand without considering you. i would push btw.

Godfather80 · #6 10-30-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1) He 4-bet the flop. This has to count for something. He has, IMO, either AK (maybe 10%) or AA (60%) or KK (30%) given this (obviously KK is eliminated).

2) He knows that I have been playing uber tight, and so for me to reraise he must put me on KK, making AA all the more likely.

Everyone says "set-over-set happens", but it seems that a strong case could be made here to not let it happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're gonna check/fold this? Or would you rather bet/fold? C'mon.

guaranteedBluff · #7 10-30-2005, 06:37 PM

I pushed, and he had AK, but I am not convinced it is the correct move. Anyone think fold?

Godfather: I wouldn't check/fold bc I was second to act, it would just be a fold.

#8 10-30-2005, 07:01 PM

I assume that because you knew his hand that he called you down. That should have been the goal.

I understand your concern about his pre-flop action; much of the time, that much strength is an AA indicator. But not enough to get you off the second nuts.

When the red K hit the turn, your only thought should have been about how to get the entire stack in there. Wasting too much time worrying about AA in that spot is only going to distract you from making the correct play to get everything in the middle, which has to be the focus with the 2nd nuts.

And I don't mind the push, because there is plenty he's likely to call you with that isn't AA. But again, folding can not be an option in this spot. Stacking him is the main concern, and if you get yourself stacked with set v. set, chalk it up to a cold deck.

Phoenix1010 · #9 10-30-2005, 07:21 PM

You're limiting his hand range way too much. His preflop stats are ridiculous, he's not reasonable, and you're overthinking this if you think you can limit him to AA 60% of the time, especially at 6 max. QQ, JJ, AK, and AQ are in his range at the very least. You play this pot all-in if you can.

All of this "set over set happens" stuff is BS though. If you can't get away from this against an observant 24/7/1 player then you're not playing well enough.