AQs 5 handed

[thesharpie]

Prima 1/2 6 max 5 handed.

I get AQs UTG (or MP) and raise, CO folds, Button (who only has 5BB) cold calls, SB folds, BB who's fairly solid 3 bets. I've seen him raise and cap AJs UTG against a LAG. He also pushed pocket 5s hard against that same LAG when we got 3 handed. I cap, both call.

Flop comes AKJr, no BDFD.

BB bets, I raise, CO cold calls, BB 3 bets, we call.

Turn 9 putting 2 suits on board, pot is 10.25BB.

BB bets, I call, CO (who now has less than 1.5BB) raises, BB 3 bets, I fold, it's a full 2BB to me with 14BB in the pot (7-1).

Comments on all streets appreciated.

[@bsolute_luck]

i'd probably play it the same. CO is probably tilting off the rest of his stack, but it could be a flush draw so you're looking at ~3 outs probably for your straight draw, which you're not getting.

[Marquis]

I don't totally understand the turn action and the rules. BB reraises the CO's all-in on the turn; is this allowed? Does it vary from site to site? Also, you say it is a full 2 bets back to on the turn. How can this be correct?

[gharp]

I have a hard time folding this given your read of CO, who will push hard with solid made hands, and who might be smart enough to try to isolate against Mr. Stackoff. I'd be too nervous about folding to another AQ. And you've got lots of outs against AJ, A9, etc.

This is an awfully tough situation. Thanks for posting it. Here is why I would have trouble throwing this hand away: I count nine hands we are currently behind: AA, KK, JJ, 99, AK, AJ, A9, KJ, and QT. The nines and the QT seem less likely given the play of the hand, but I will includ them to be conservative. Given that you hold AQ, I count 49 combinations of cards that would give an opponent one of these hands. This is out of 46*45 = 2,070 possible hands they could have been dealt (considering that we know 6 cards they don't have). 49/2070 = 2.37%, so if we ignored the play of the hand, there is a 2.37% chance that any individual opponent was dealt a hand that is beating you, or collectively an 9.47% chance that one of your opponents was dealt one of these hands.

Obviously, all of the betting makes it more likely that someone has one, but assuming you will call one bet on the river if you call two on the turn, you are getting 5 to 1 to call. For simplicity let's assume all of the outs cancel each other (i.e. a third flush card could sink you, but a Q is an out against AJ or A9, a T is an out against most of the other hands, etc.). Then the question is, is there a 1 in 6 chance that we're ahead?

Even if we assume that the action indicates that it is eight times more likely than a random distribution of hands would dictate that someone holds a hand that is beating us, that leaves us with a 75.7% chance we are behind, so we should still call. Given that the short stack may be tilting a bit and the other guy is pretty aggressive, I think I would end up calling, but I wouldn't like it.

Edit: I think maybe my math is all wrong. Please ignore. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[LoaferGee12]

Are you raising the flop in hopes that he has either QQ or TT? All other 3-betting hands are crushing you here. If he does have AQ, I think you want to keep CO around. I think I may prefer just calling this one down.

Okay, trying again here. I think there are 1,035 hands your opponents could have been dealt, so essentially there is a ~19% chance someone was dealt a hand that is beating you even if you ignore all of the action. So now I'm leaning towards fold.

[cmwck]

This looks good. Once he three-bets the flop there's a good chance he has two pair or a set. Once he 3-bets the turn there's an awesome chance he has two pair or a set. This would give you probably 4-5 outs at best.

However, I'm curious as to why you raised the flop. It seems to me that if we raise, he'll be folding the turn with everything that we beat, but will only continue if he beats us.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't totally understand the turn action and the rules. BB reraises the CO's all-in on the turn; is this allowed? Does it vary from site to site? Also, you say it is a full 2 bets back to on the turn. How can this be correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently on prima they allow a reraise of an all in and round it up to a full 2BB, other sites I've played on only allow 1BB more than the all in if they even allow a reraise.


[ QUOTE ]

However, I'm curious as to why you raised the flop. It seems to me that if we raise, he'll be folding the turn with everything that we beat, but will only continue if he beats us.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll still call with QQ/TT, I don't think he leads the flop with those often, though.

I agree not raising the flop is best. I made my decision too fast while distracted. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]