Top Pair 2nd Kicker vs solid player

Vern · #1 03-11-2005, 04:30 AM

UTG+1 is a decent, but not tricky player that I have over 500 hands with and he is 20/5/1.5. I don't think he thinks I am a weak player so his pre-flop raise is not to isolate a weak player (At least I don't think his perception of me could be that [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img])

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 6 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

 Ok, What would he three-bet me with. AA(1), KK(6), AK(8), QQ(3), JJ(3), TT(6). I don't think he three-bets with much more, so on this flop I am ahead of 15 hands, KK(6), QQ(3) & TT(6) and behind 12 hands AA(1), AK(8), JJ(3) So I bet. Should I three-bet his raise on the flop with intent to call a cap and fold the turn unimproved or is calling down HU ok now? I figure if he holds KK, QQ, TT a three-bet from me will shut him down and if I am behind, he will either cap me here or call and raise the turn.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

 Same stats as on the flop, I am actually ahead of his possible holdings more than behind.

River: (7.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero ?

 This is a bad card for me, I am now behind AA(1), KK(3), JJ(3), AK(6), 13 hands, but am only ahead of 9 hands, QQ(3) and TT(6). I am getting 8.5:1 on this call, but I don't think he bets QQ or TT here 12% of the time but I can hear Ed Miller whispering in my ear, "You fold at the river too much."

As always, criticism of any part of the hand is more than welcome.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

jt1 · #2 03-11-2005, 04:34 AM

I didn't read your blue but i check call down. I'd consider leading the river but not on that board

jt1 · #3 03-11-2005, 04:44 AM

I'm re-thinking this by actually considering your player read. I'd check call the flop and lead the turn. If he raises then I might dump. I wouldn't feel confortable doing it, but if you trust your read....

Then again he might raise with AQ, but that's the only hand he could have that you don't loose to, and it doesn't look like he 3 bets with that hand.

Vern · #4 03-11-2005, 04:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Then again he might raise with AQ, but that's the only hand he could have that you don't loose to, and it doesn't look like he 3 bets with that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I trust my read, 500 hands is a good sample to have. He might three-bet AQs, I doubt it, but there is only one left and I don't think considering one hand for a tie to change my odds that much.

Shillx · #5 03-11-2005, 04:48 AM

The flop bet sucks.

Brad

Vern · #6 03-11-2005, 04:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The flop bet sucks.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

God I want to understand, don't tease me like this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Shillx · #7 03-11-2005, 04:55 AM

Might this hand help you. A few hands earlier I open raised 77 and he 3-bet me from the SB. I folded on a KQx flop so I don't really know what to make of his 3-bet here.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Superhero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Superhero raises, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Superhero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Superhero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (6 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Superhero calls.

River: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Superhero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

He has KK. MHIG

Vern · #8 03-11-2005, 05:00 AM

So if I understand it then, this is a place to take the line on the flop of check/call, check/call, bet/fold unless something changes on the way? Lose the least, make the most. The flop bet was bad because had he had KK, QQ or TT, I might have shut him down right away and only a better had was going to continue against me.

VL

bakku · #9 03-11-2005, 05:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So if I understand it then, this is a place to take the line on the flop of check/call, check/call, bet/fold unless something changes on the way? Lose the least, make the most. The flop bet was bad because had he had KK, QQ or TT, I might have shut him down right away and only a better had was going to continue against me.

VL

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. Actually, I wouldn't be betting this river, the board sucks for your hand. I almost want to check/fold but would probably call.

Vern · #10 03-11-2005, 05:45 AM

Yeah, I understand the line and that once that K hit the river, I would not bet it, but I would likely call here.

When articulating the line, I was talking about the line I would start at the flop. That K really sucked, even if I started the line incorrectly.

Thanks.

Vern