River bet w/under FH on 2xPaired Board

[Vern]

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There might even be a slight chance a bet folds out a 6

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The player who calls 1BB at the turn with pair of 6's and folds for 1BB on the river in a 20BB pot when he actually made his "draw" have to be pretty [censored] retarded [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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I agree, but there are plenty of them in the .5/1 game, even at paradise. I said it was between slight and zero, but against such a weak/passive field, I think it could have been. I am just glad there was no maniac or LAG that I would have to call multiple bets on the end against.

Vern

[Nick Royale]

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I agree, but there are plenty of them in the .5/1 game, even at paradise. I said it was between slight and zero, but against such a weak/passive field, I think it could have been. I am just glad there was no maniac or LAG that I would have to call multiple bets on the end against.

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Yeah. I've played opponents who check/raises A-high on this board who other than that didn't play overly aggressive (nor good). I voted bet/fold at first, but that would be pretty bad.

[DeathDonkey]

Cap preflop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I would have checked I think you'll see a 6 here almost every time.

-DeathDonkey

[Nick Royale]

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I would have checked I think you'll see a 6 here almost every time.

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I think you're wrong. If we assume no player fold a 6 after getting to the flop:

45 unseen cards. 8 of these are not 6's since they've been folded by loose players postflop. You are up against 3 players on the river.

How often will these 3 players draw 2 cards each from 37 (45-8) without hitting a 6?

(35!/29!)/(37!/31!)= ~70%

So they'll only have a 6 30% of the time. Of course in reality that number will be higher since the hands they'll play to the river isn't random. But since loose players will play many hands like this (and pay off) I think a bet here is for value. And they will only very rarely raise you with a 6 since they're passive and there's 2 K's on the board.

[Vern]

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Cap preflop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I would have checked I think you'll see a 6 here almost every time.

-DeathDonkey

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One more player in and I would have capped pre-flop but I liked both my position and relative position here.

I think the math says bet, call one back although the calling one back is just for sanity.

Vern

[Vern]

Well, I wimped out and checked, even though evaluating it I think I should have bet. Here is the rest of the hand.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)
Props to Bison for his converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (24 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

UTG+1 has 9c Tc (flush, king high).
MP2 has Ah 3h (two pair, kings and sixes).
CO has As Jd (two pair, kings and sixes).
Hero has 2h 2s (full house, twos full of kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 18.50 BB.