Superbowl Equity

[BottlesOf]

I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on how much "superbowl equity" the 4 remaining NFL teams hold, i.e. what percntage of the time they win it all. I'd like to try and get 2 sig figs. in the guesses. I don't think anyone can reasonably argue that one team holds that majority of the equity, or that a team has less than 10/15%. I'm not really sure how I feel at this point, but I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts.

[The Dude]

New England - 38%
Pittsburg - 30%
Philadelphia - 17%
Atlanta - 15%

[NLSoldier]

Pitt-33%
NE-26%
Philly-17%
Vick-24%

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]
Pitt-33%
NE-26%
Philly-17%
Vick-24%

[/ QUOTE ]

BULLSHIT. its a team game. stop Vick, stop the falcons.

Philly 25%
Pitt 35%
NE 30%
ATL 10%

Eagles have a better quity is they have TO

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!

[tolbiny]

From the bottom-
EAgles have the lowest ~ 16.67% of the time will they win the super bowl. While i think the Falcons game is a toss up right now, i don't think they beat the AFC team very often- 1/3 tries, so 50/50 for the NFC game, and 1/3 for the super bowl for their number.
Falcons- 50/50 again, but their offense gives many more probelms, especially with the super bowl being played in good weather. they get a 40% chance of knocking off an AFC team for a 20.00% win rate.
Pats i have favored over the Steelers like 54%-46% so they take the prize 34.20% of the time, and that leaves the steelers with a 29.13% win rate.

EDIT: bad math

[PhatTBoll]

NE - 34%
Philly - 29%
Pitt - 20%
Atlanta - 17%

[Sponger15SB]

As I said before, and I'll be sticking with it.

80% NE
0% Pitt
12% Phil
8% Atl

Right Clark?

[BottlesOf]

I'll take the field if you are willing to put some money on NE winning the big one 80%

I'll also wager a penny against your entire bankroll on Pitt. Consider whatvever percentage this awards Pitt as a gift. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[IggyWH]

Some of these answers are quite crazy...

Of course I'm a Steelers fan and I know the offense played bad last week, but they completely dominated Philly & New England both this year. The Steelers should have better %'s than NE and Philly. You might have an opinion that's different, but results on the field give you a good idea how the %'s should go.

[daryn]

keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.