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#61
10-31-2005, 09:29 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
omg NLSoldier. DeathDonkey told me about this when we were out last night and I nearly cried for you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 
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#62
10-31-2005, 09:39 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it shows that at all. [/ QUOTE ] Trust me, it does if we assume that BK was playing well and that he was a winner in the games. [/ QUOTE ] I think this graph pretty much shoes that (only about the last year or so...from my current db):  It's kinda amazing how during the game it feels so streaky (and it is) but when you get into the bigger picture you can barely notice the blips. I was going to wait til 500k hands to post this but now seems like a decent time.
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#64
10-31-2005, 09:45 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
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Stop bragging. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You get 1 extra piece of candy tonight cause you got that in there first. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#65
10-31-2005, 09:47 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it shows that at all. [/ QUOTE ] What does it show? [/ QUOTE ] It shows that even over the sample size of all your play, your results correlate far less diretly to your skill level than people would like to think. People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.
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#66
10-31-2005, 10:25 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning. [/ QUOTE ] Anyone have the link to this? Thanks.
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#67
10-31-2005, 10:29 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it shows that at all. [/ QUOTE ] What does it show? [/ QUOTE ] Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.
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#68
10-31-2005, 10:35 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning. [/ QUOTE ] Anyone have the link to this? Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] link
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#69
10-31-2005, 10:41 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it shows that at all. [/ QUOTE ] What does it show? [/ QUOTE ] Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.
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