Rock Cracking

Vern · #1 03-22-2005, 09:27 AM

Table is pretty good and I have position on two of the better contributors, CO & BTN are both loose/passive call to the river types. I was sorry to see them fold this hand.

MP2 is a rock, very tight, passive pre-flop (10/3) then plays the flop extremely aggressive (AF:5) if he hits then turns weak/tight for the turn and river (AF:0.75) rarely showing down anything that cannot be described as some variation of the nuts.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)
Props to Bison for his converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

When he raises, I put him on a solid range of hands, TT or better, AQs, or AK. When he caps, I put him on AA(6), KK(1), QQ(6), and maybe AKs(2). This is the first time in over 100 hands I have seen him re-raise pre-flop, let along cap.

Flop: (9 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

 I now have MP2 on AA(3), QQ(6) or AKs(1), so I am way ahead of 60% of his holdings (QQ), but not likely to make much money. 10% of the time I am way ahead (AKs) but likely to make a lot of money and 3 times I am way behind and likely to lose a lot of money. With my read, I think I want to lead out here, so I do, this hyper aggressive on the flop player just calls. I am about 95% sure he has QQ now.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

What's my line? Do I bet, when I know 75% of the time he doesn't fold he is way ahead of me. Do I check, hoping he will give me another bet with QQ and if he bets after my turn check, do I check-raise or call and then what do I do on the river? This had me confused because I was honestly about 95% sure I was ahead on this turn but he would be easily spooked and run away with any hand I beat.

As always, any criticism of any part of the hand is more than appreciated.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

TheHip41 · #2 03-22-2005, 10:08 AM

Just bet. He's not folding any Ace here.

crunchy1 · #3 03-22-2005, 10:57 AM

Played it great up until the action stops. At this point - bet the turn.

Don't be afraid that betting will win the pot right here. It's probably what's going to happen (what did happen) and there's nothing wrong with that.

He's a rock and the only way you're getting action from this point on is if he has a hand. You're better to lead out and hope for a raise than to check and hope for a bet.

Jeffage · #4 03-22-2005, 11:53 AM

What's to discuss? If he's really passive on the turn, a bet is fine and I'd probably reraise if he raises, calling a 4th bet and checkcalling the river (or betting the river and calling a raise after that, if I think he could do this with AK). But another possible line is to checkraise the turn...if he has QQ or something he's prob folding the turn but he may bet it if you check to him (so you gain one bet, assuming he will fold to the checkraise). But the way this hand plays, I don't see him not betting the turn if you check, so checkraising might work well for you.

If he had AA, that's life.

Jeff

JoshuaD · #5 03-22-2005, 12:03 PM

Do you have his WtSD stat? I have playerview overlaying that also when I play. It comes in really useful.

I think everyone's dismissing a check as a viable option here. If the guy is going to fold QQ to a bet on the turn, but will call one more bet on the river with it, then checking the turn might be worth looking at.

Anyway, if his WtSD is high, then I would continue to bet, if his WtSD is really low, It might be worth looking into check/raising or (if it gets checked through), checking, and betting the river.

Your read is really specific and really strong here, if he's got AK or AA, he's going to bet when checked too. We can then check/raise, getting some value (he had AK twice as often as AA, right?).

So if you're sure he'll fold QQ on the turn, but might call a bet on the river, I think a check is in order. If you think he might call you down with QQ, bet it.

From the information you gave, I would bet, but if you had more information that you didn't tell us, then a check might work.

Vern · #6 03-22-2005, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have his WtSD stat? I have playerview overlaying that also when I play. It comes in really useful.

I think everyone's dismissing a check as a viable option here. If the guy is going to fold QQ to a bet on the turn, but will call one more bet on the river with it, then checking the turn might be worth looking at.

Anyway, if his WtSD is high, then I would continue to bet, if his WtSD is really low, It might be worth looking into check/raising or (if it gets checked through), checking, and betting the river.

Your read is really specific and really strong here, if he's got AK or AA, he's going to bet when checked too. We can then check/raise, getting some value (he had AK twice as often as AA, right?).

So if you're sure he'll fold QQ on the turn, but might call a bet on the river, I think a check is in order. If you think he might call you down with QQ, bet it.

From the information you gave, I would bet, but if you had more information that you didn't tell us, then a check might work.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize for being unclear.

I don't see him capping with AKo, maybe, but unlikely, so if he gives me action on the turn I think there are only 4 hands that he has, AA(3) or AKs(1) [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is the only AKs left unaccounted for]

I have his Went To SD at ~10%, Won at SD >90%

I don't think there is a chance in the world that he will call me down with QQ when there is an Ace and King on the board and a pre-flop aggressor leading into the preflop capper on both the flop and turn. Especially when his telltale move is to get hyper aggressive on the flop then check/call down and all he did was call the flop. This makes me think even less AKs because the only hands he caps with and calls the flop might be AA and defintely QQ.

FYI My Playerview has VP$IP/PFR/TOTHands above the players name and AFAF/WtSD/W$aSD below.

Vern

Mike Gallo · #7 03-22-2005, 06:48 PM

Bet.