Devastating 30 BB hand

[MagicFlea]

I just sit down to get in some 3 tabling at 2/4... within 5 minutes I'm suddenly in three massive pots with mediocre holdings. The result on this is unbelievable... I don't claim to have played it remotely decently but here it is...

I had just sat down and have no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, 1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, CO 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

I still feel like I can win because there's absolutely nothing scary about the board, only a set really has me drawing dead. The pot is just too big to give up and watch an out fall.

River: (26.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets</font>, Hero folds...

two questions: a) considering how I played the rest of this hand, is this fold bad? b) was I spewing earlier in the hand ?

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

between the three tables I lost 150 in 10 minutes... certainly a wake up call from the run of good luck I've been having

[CCovington]

Just fold

[MagicFlea]

I am getting 14-1 or better every time it comes to me... among those 6 aces and queens, you don't think I have a 50% chance to win if I hit one?

people could be betting like that with: an overpair, top pair with an higher kicker, flush draw w/overcards, straight/flush draw... dunno I just felt like it was a big enough pot that I had to stay in

Fold the flop. You have less than 3 outs between your overcards, because an A or Q of [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could give someone else a flush.

EDIT: Not to mention the more remote chance of a straight with any A.

EDIT 2: And, you have people behind you, so your odds are effectively going down with the chance of a raise after you.

[W. Deranged]

Raising this turn is an absolute disaster.

You may have like 2-3 outs here or something. Calling the turn is hardly automatic. I think the turn is much, much closer to a fold than it is to a raise. Raising basically accomplishes nothing, as the pot is really big and it's unlikely you'll clean up outs by folding a reverse-dominating hand, and you're equity just isn't high enough to justify such aggressive tactical moves anyway.

I'm not sure what I think about the flop yet. It does seem too early to fold, and relative position sucks, and I generally don't like calling a bet on my immediate right with a ton of players left to act behind me. The presence of the spades (and no spades in our hand), the likelihood that in a 7 player pot we're reverse-dominated, and the possibility of a raise behind us (overpairs, set, flush draws are all possible raising hands behind us) means we're really in a terrible position. So it's not like we have 6 outs in a 14 bet pot putting in one bet. It's more like we have 3 effective outs having to pay on average more than one bet or something.

Oh, yeah, and even when we hit there are tons of redraws. And often we'll hit and lose.

So, fold the flop. Barring that, I guess raising the flop is next best. Given the way it was played, raise the turn.

So you put in nearly 5 BB here that you shouldn't have. I think your effective "Sklansky bucks" lose here may be somewhere in neighborhood of 2-2.5 BB total.

[MagicFlea]

alright... I can see that. when i folded I was so sure I totally goofed the turn by raising... then the river action came

CO calls, shows AJo, BB shows 92s and AJo takes $120

my hand was good the whole time! I know you shouldn't think about results, but this seems like the one situation where it should give you pause... folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.

Still, with a little perspective I agree that the turn raise was incorrect...

[Stealthy]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the way it was played, fold the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed your post.

with that many people in the pot you have to assume your up against a flush draw and have 4 outs. Of those 4 outs you can be up against hands that have already have a pair and a kicker with your hand. Hell, your aces are probably in other peoples hands, assuming this game is that loose people don't fold aces preflop therefore the ones that pair the board will screw you when you turn an ace and they have two pair. So between your 4 non flush cards I'd say you have two clean outs between the queens and aces. 14:1 on 2 outs isn't worth it especially since people will hit there flush on the river and redraw out on you.

Your line.... ok, so you thought the pot was big enough and were trying to isolate yourself w/ the initial bettor hoping to spike top pair etc... Thats the second best play imo, i think folding is better. Now after like 3 people cold call you, you have to know theres a flush draw out there. Therefore, I don't like raising the turn because you won't get the draws to fold and are just asking them to call the river with any pair since the pot is soo big. Now that you know you have flush draws present on the turn you can safely assume you have 4 outs MAX, but I wouldn't treat it like 4 outs because of what I typed earlier. Therefore you need like 20:1 on the turn and your just not getting that so you should probably fold here as well.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given the way it was played, fold the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed your post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. That was a typo. I am obviously advocating folding the turn.

Let's backtrack through your decisions.

At first glance over the action, I was surprised to see you fold the river. Are you really losing 96.5% of the time here?

Back to the turn. I think you can find a fold to the 3-bet from the CO. Further, I think you can fold the turn for the first bet. I don't think you have more than 3 outs, if even that many, and you will lose more money if the bad outs hit on the river, just because the pot is already so huge.

You have to call that 3-bet on the flop. I don't think you should be raising, though. I really hate raising without a spade in that spot. I get the feeling you raised because you felt you couldn't fold...