Maximizing the chance to win a huge pot

olavfo · #1 05-29-2005, 04:47 PM

I played this hand a few minutes ago at wild Party 0.50/1 table. I openraise KQ offsuit, then I get limp-reraised and all hell breaks loose. It ends up with a capped 8-handed pot preflop.

UTG+2 seems to be tilting, and he is playing almost any two cards. Also, I think UTG capped just for fun, not that it matters much.

The flop is interesting:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (32 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises

This is the play I want to debate. The pot is huge, and although I have 3x the pot odds I need to draw to my gutshot, I want to maximize my chance of winning this pot (all of it).

I can never cut down the pot odds sufficiently to make it incorrect for any conceivable drawing hand to call, but I'm hoping two things will happen:
<ul type="square">[*]Other gutshot draws will be scared away, even if they have odds to draw.[*]I will get a free card.[/list]Obviously, scaring other gutshots into folding is priority one, and since the Party 0.50/1 crowd is not particularly concerned about pot odds, I believe I have a good chance to scare other straight draws out of the pot. Also, I suspect there are some massively overplayed hands out there, and I'm hoping a raise will cool them down enough to give me a free card on the turn as a bonus.

The play made sense to me when I made it, but I'd like to hear from the experts here. Does my flop raise make sense in this humongous pot?

olavfo

irishpint · #2 05-29-2005, 04:51 PM

i dont think it makes sense in this pot since it's so large a gutshot, a backdoor flush, etc. EVERYTHING has odds to stay in and draw. to win this you have to outdraw the others, not get them all to fold. by raising you're allowing yourself to be 3bet, etc and the craziness continues. I would just call the bet.

istewart · #3 05-29-2005, 04:51 PM

I'd just call. Everyone is getting 17:1 and you're probably getting 3-bet. You need a ten to win here, keep others in.

Double limp-reraise, eh. Never seen that.

gharp · #4 05-29-2005, 04:57 PM

I'm no expert, but I'll echo what the others have said -- you're going to need a T to win so keep the others around to pay you off when you hit it. I doubt you're going to bluff anyone out of this pot, especially if they have an A (and someone almost certainly does).

I think it's interesting, though, that if there are 8 (or even 7) people in this pot and it comes back to you raised on the flop, you could re-raise for value (having 16% equity w/your 4-out draw)!

olavfo · #5 05-29-2005, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think it's interesting, though, that if there are 8 (or even 7) people in this pot and it comes back to you raised on the flop, you could re-raise for value (having 16% equity w/your 4-out draw)!

[/ QUOTE ]
That's an interesting observation indeed. Didn't think about that in the heat of battle, but if all of them stay in, it might become possible. Value-reraising a gutshot draw for value, how cool is that?

olavfo

Kumubou · #6 05-29-2005, 05:06 PM

Wow, this looks insane. 8 people to a capped flop? Just.... wow.

UTG is my new hero for successfully pulling off the limp-call-cap line pre-flop. Only an expert could do that.

There's no way in hell anyone is going away, and there's no way in hell you are getting a free card. On the other hand, with your gutshot draw to the nuts in this monstar pot, you aren't going anywhere either, and this pot is going to end up super-bloated. I raise and just start shouting "gambooooool!!" (because that's the whole point here), and I sacrafice a kitten to spike a T somewhere during this hand.

-Dippy

iNsChris · #7 05-29-2005, 05:09 PM

No ones leaving this, Just call down hit your ten and raise like mad!

Then split with someone else holding same hand lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

olavfo · #8 05-29-2005, 05:30 PM

Must ... share ...results:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (32 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (21 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players) (Thank you, Jesus!)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB raises, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (28 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 30 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Jd Ts (two pair, aces and jacks).
Hero has Qh Kc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 30 BB. 

Gotta love Party. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

olavfo

P.S. Still not 100% sure what to do on the flop, since most fish don't give a rat's ass about pot odds, and some of them will fold their gutshots to aggression in this situation, regardless of pot size. If raising is wrong, it can't be wrong by much.

no1super2001 · #9 05-29-2005, 05:35 PM

I will take what may be a contrarian view here...

The way the raises went into this pot could not have been more frustrating to anyone who wanted to see the flop for 1 more bet. In fact, it looks like collusion from the surface. I think the "fit or fold"ers may very well bail when the cost to see the next card goes up again on the flop.

If you reduce the field by 2 or 3, you are significantly improving your equity in the pot. In addition, your raise is profitable even in a 2 way split pot.

I saw a post from Ed Miller a day or so ago, I would really like to hear his perspective on this one. At the very least, I would be interested in a reference in SSH or others that really speak to this subject. It is likely so rare that it receives little mention.

no1super2001 · #10 05-29-2005, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (32 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (21 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players) BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB raises, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (28 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 30 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Told ya!

There is often talk on the forums like "don't worry about the flush" and such. How can it be that we believe that no one is cunning enough to be playing a monster made hand well, yet we assume that none will fold if they have the correct odds to call.

The dynamics of the game require consideration.