Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???

[big_steve]

First off you're playing maybe 4x as many hands as you would in a B&M casino. Combine this with the fact that if all hands are played to the river then it's bound to seem like it's happening on a more-than-regular occurance. I doubt it's rigged what with the rakes etc. the site makes as it has too much to lose.

[BCl]

I dont think its players seeing your cards or knowing whats coming. if your going to cry foul then theres no way to do it but say the site itself is behind it. why would it be so strange to learn that a site is directing the flow of the cards to people who they feel will not withdraw but instead will reinvest the winnings to generate more rake..that makes as much sense as any theory ive run across. there a hundred or so major tournys a day played across various sites. by major i mean paying say 1500 up to 500,000.00. why isnt there hundreds of posts a day by people screaming "I WON" "I WON" ??? i see a few here everyday saying "i hit 30th", "i finished 2nd", "i hit the money"..but where are all these winners? i know i know, "the good players dont need to brag"...take that crap elsewhere. if you won you'd be screaming all over this forum. i saw a post earlier today where someone won a tourny and they couldn't wait to tell everybody...but i read the same posts everyday. "how could they call with that"? "knocked me out the tourny" " the hands seem to be rigged to guarantee you'll lose ..."i had QQ 1 player raised i went all-in..he turns over 3-5 and the flop came 467 " "i went all in with KQ 1 caller turns over K7, flop came Q77" who goes all-in with 3-5? who calls a huge raise with K7? read it every day..you read the same posts from the ring players.."made a few withdrawals and luck went to [censored]"..."guy called with nothing all the way to the river", yadda frickin yadda...

Maybe this is all random stuff, 1000's of hands played an hour online..yea i know, its poker, thats gambling. IF i knew for sure it was rigged i'd quit tonight but i swear if the story broke tomorrow that these sites are screwing us blind i surely wouldnt be shocked. i almost expect it.

[danzasmack]

you're right - all these guys don't post about how they won. they post "i pay my bills".

And when you go all in with QQ and some guy calls you with 35, and you win, you don't say anything. the reason why you hear about losing is because that's what you remember. I went all in when i hit my flush once in a tourny. I got called by the nut flush, and spike a one outer for a straight flush. do i care, no. does that guy who lost think online poker is rigged, probably. To people who complain, getting sucked out on means online is "rigged", but when you get lucky you just smile.

And predicting which card is going to come next based on what you see is impossible.

[abuljooj]

as many others have mentioned, it is not in the online casino's interest to rig the game because they make tons of money already. however if someone or a group of skilled individuals found an undetectable way to predict the cards to come or other players' hole cards, which would be fairly hard but not impossible (i am a computer programmer and trust me everything can be hacked), those individuals would ideally target the highest limit hold'em games that the site offered, so they can make the most amount of money without attracting too much attention continually making what seems to be impossible calls for all their money playing No limit. high limit hold'em would be their best game to attack. it is far fetched that someone is actually doing this, but if they are, that is the game they would be doing it in. honestly if you're making a living off playing poker, then screw the online stuff, and play in a real casino.

[vexvelour]

i gather that you're speaking of party poker.

i play there regularly, and have noticed some crazy trends.

first, i have witnessed what you're talking about ralphie. i have sat in front of my computer, for 5 minutes after a hand, because what has happened seems impossible. i have thought what you wrote a thousand times.

second, it seems party poker likes to dictate when your lucky "bursts" are gonna be. in a tournament not too long ago, for the first 15 hands my cards were unbeatable. A-5. win. 8-4o. win. everything won. (i only played 8-4o when i realized that something was up...)

perhaps these 2 things have something to do with one another. [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[CudaGra]

As bad as I hate to admit it (certainly not to my wife) I think it would be really naive to think there is no difference between online poker and a real deck of cards. Just set down and deal out 70 hands and record the results. I realized this one day by keeping track of which cards hit on the flop in a hour of play, low and behold in order from most to least: A,K,Q,J,10 and then not really any difference, that's when I couldn't lie to myself any more and quit playing online. Plain and simple big hands=lots of action=big rake. GREEEEDDDDD!

[avengersvalor]

long-time 2+2 reader, but first time posting --

my $.02: I have noticed what ralphie has talked about -- avg players who play pretty decent most of the time, don't make any outrageous moves, plays ABC, etc. yet at certain times will cold call bets and raises with absolutely nothing and hit miracle cards. I discuss these things at face value with my other poker playing friends, but all they do is reprimand me for my "bad beat stories". I can understand if (like ralphie said) they were semibluffing and hit, or if they had any reasonable draw, but i seriously cannot understand what they were thinking. If it was only once or twice by different ppl, maybe I can attribute it to misclicks or spur of the moment decisions, but when it keeps happening with the same players...

This also occurred during late 2004 and early 2005. I was just starting to play, read and reread SSHE, practiced at the microlimits on pkrstars and made sure i was a winning player, then moved to party. at once i started making a killing on 2/4, built up a pretty good bankroll, and then suddenly around late 2004 i started losing with all my cards. a lot of shady stuff like what Ralphie has mentioned. at first i just discounted it to variance, but it just seemed odd to me that the more i was reading/playing, the worse i seemed to be doing. after awhile, I pretty lost all of my bankroll (which is maybe 400 BB at 2/4), and really discouraged me as to whether i was still a winning poker player, or is there something else happening...? i've been trying to find posts/articles about this for awhile, but haven't found any decent material until i read this one today and decided to comment.

this is my story -- it is in no way any proof, but can maybe serve as some anecdotal evidence. plz respond if any of you guys have had similar experiences. my support goes out to ralphie -- ur not the only one!

[SangFroid]

96 replies not much more I can add than I am a really awful poker player. Never read any books or anything, really just learned the game a few months ago, played once a week with friends, thought I'd give a shot online to see what the big deal was.

So I sign up for Party Poker, deposit 50, go into a micro limit table and with sweaty palms and white knuckles get ready to watch my 50 go out the window, walk away, then never gamble again in my life. My first hand I go in raising with rags to feel the rhythm, I flop a two pair, I reraise, I take a pot. I got lucky I tell myself. Lo and behold, first 10 hands I hit quads. Twice. On top of this I had beaten out other monsters (AA, full houses, make a boat on the river as others hit their flush).

.... Now maybe I should preface this by saying that I am not the most levelheaded guy. I am filled with all sorts of demons, and everywhere I go, my vices are there waiting for me. So you see, I moved straight up to the 5/10 limit table with a 100 bankroll. Within the night I had turned it into 750 a lot just by reraising people with rags and forcing them out, but even when people knew I was a fish and called me out, I'd hit some miraculous runner runner or something. I remember winning a 300 pot and started telling myself I dont ever need to work a day in my life. It was obvious I needed to go pro.

Fast forward a few months, I know I am a better player, smarter, actually know some odds, but I am somehow suppose to believe that this [censored] works against me now. I have maxed out my credit, overdrawn checking accounts countless times, and am now in the hole deeper than I can begin to confess to myself. I'm thinking Chapter 11 really.

So you see, I've discussed my luck with other players, and I've heard it all before "the action is so much faster, you play more hands", "you dont complain when you win". But thats exactly what Im here to do. Its like doing your first line of coke, or shooting your first jab of junk, I was hooked on online poker within my first 10 hands. Granted, I do think I am drawn to the game cause its strategically challenging and, believe it or not, fun, but to feel like you have some sixth sense guiding the money from other peoples wallets into your stack you feel unstoppable. I was a fish. "They" layed the bait, hook, line, and sinker, and now my bank account is gutted out on some new fishes dining room table. I am currently down probably 3 grand and am trying to win back 500 to make payments for a month then I dont know what. I like to think that because I have such an addictive personality I force myself to be more honest to the one person who its hardest to be honest to- me. Thus, now when I go all in after flopping a straight against a pair of aces and watch them hit quads on the river, I try to tell myself, hey, bad beat, it happens. But who really [censored] believes it. it doesnt just happen. Small stacks will go runner runner to top out higher pps a lot more than 16% of the time or whatever it is.

Allow me to qualify this as not just another bad beat whine. The point is a lot of the time, I;m that small stack. I get dominated then watch my hand turn to gold, having made enough to make 3rd place, i get in the money in a sit n go, and I promptly reinvest it. I havent sat down to figure exactlty how much has been raked out of my guts, but considering I've made and lost over 1500 in one day twice, I know that Party Poker's gotten their moneys worth with me.

You see, things wouldve been better if I couldve just gotten my ass kicked soundly the first time. Now I'm just barely dangling by a pinky nail onto financial survival.

Yes, I am frustrated, but I simply cannot dismiss this as coincidence. This just doest happen. How about hitting quads twice and one royal flush in one SNG. That happened when I accidently entered a limit hold'em sit'n'go for the first time... beginners luck huh.

I dont know what to believe... I do think that the sites would have too much to lose if they got caught, but I KNOW, KNOW, KNOW it is not outside the realm of possibilities that the "random" number algorithms were cracked or a spyware program captures hands in realtime or whatever. IT is all code. Therefore it can be cracked. Really, I think we are just starting to understand this, that nothing is truly random, in computers or otherwise, but definitely not in online texas hold'em. Yes there are good players, there are pros, there are math genuises and blankfaced raisers that do win legitimately. But I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know that things are not what they are made to seem.

[imported_piki]

For all those sceptics that cannot believe their bad luck - I suggest that you take a look at a simulation of your winnings given your winrate and your deviation. It's quite simple to do in excel (if anyone wants an example, PM me) and if you search long enough, you'll find huge downswings and breakeven stretches that last over several 10,000 hands (easely 2+ months of regular play). It's not something you see very often, but given the sheer volume of online players, there's bound to be few who just won't be able to win for an extended period of time.

Just so you know - win rate (BB/100 you get in PT) is a very, very unstable statistic. For example, take 10 players, all have enough skill to beat 30/60 for exactly 1BB/100 and have SD 17BB/100. Playing 30,000 hands a month, in one year, 9 of them will earn somewhere between 100-300k, and one will be either below or above this range.

Does this make you more comfortable? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-pix

[Ryan11]

Yes all the online sites are rigged . .the casinos want a piece of the action as well that's why they are moving to the shuffling machines.