maybe interesting steal gone somewhat wrong 5/10

[cero_z]

Hi Lethal Rose,

I'm a poker dork. I'm always the one who feels the need to spell this stuff out explicitly. This is very important, so pay attention.

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If its +EV pot odds wise to call a push dont we want our opponent to push? An overbet or push might cause him to fold.


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+EV can mean different things. If you say a play is +EV, that could mean that a)It makes money from that point on, which means it's a non-folding action that's better than folding (because folding breaks even), or b) that it's THE MOST +EV play, compared to all other plays in that spot.

In this hand, you have the two meanings confused. So, if we bet pot and get raised all-in, then calling that raise will make more money than folding will. It's +EV in that sense. But this is not to say that betting and calling a raise with the worst hand is the most +EV situation that could arise. It would be better for us if our opponent folded to our bet, so we didn't have to try to suck out. Winning the pot immediately with our flop bet is better than calling to hit the straight. This is true for everyone except me; I'm the luckiest.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Nice post. So what's your take on flop bet vs. c/r? And how much would you bet? This hand has me quite interested now...

[kagame]

this is so much easier then everyones making it seem

passive = bet to take it down
decent draw = were not folding

if you check our weak passive opponent who probably has a marginal pair a huge majority of the time here WILL CHECK BEHIND AND WE WILL LOSE A CHANCE TO WIN THE POT RIGHT THERE

bit disapointed with you guys, playing devils advocate is all well and good but check raising all in is just clearly an inferior line

now, if you could make a plausible case that our opponent isnt folding often enough to make pushing this draw +EV then thats something else, then wed want to get free cards, but noone is even suggesting that

cero how did you make yourself post that? i still think we need a FAQ intro thread/compilation, this is just too basic for almost everyone on here, despite how well you treated the subject

[Prevaricator]

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why should we try to price ourselves out on one of the best flops for our steal hand?

this defeats the entire purpose of the steal and, more importantly, will make your blind steals in the future almost impossible against these players

how nitty is this bet fold line

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yeah, okay... if you want to make it your mission in life to get it in as a 2:1 dog then so be it. My point is that vs these guys, you can just bet and hope they missed their set and will fold.

No it doesnt defeat the purpose of the steal, most of the time they miss their set.

how is that being a nit? that is being smart.

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why should we try to price ourselves out on one of the best flops for our steal hand?

this defeats the entire purpose of the steal and, more importantly, will make your blind steals in the future almost impossible against these players

how nitty is this bet fold line

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, okay... if you want to make it your mission in life to get it in as a 2:1 dog then so be it. My point is that vs these guys, you can just bet and hope they missed their set and will fold.

No it doesnt defeat the purpose of the steal, most of the time they miss their set.

how is that being a nit? that is being smart.

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He already called a significant reraise preflop, why does he need a set to call us down. Check raising is a stronger play and gives good metagame image if we are called so in the future the set check raise will get paid off.

[Prevaricator]

checkraising might be okay vs aggressive opponents, but vs weak tight its much worse because if they bet in this spot then you probably have no fold equity.

[RoundersRocks!]

I feel like you want to go for the fold, and leave the open-ended as a backdoor if you don't get the fold. The question becomes how do you put the most pressure on your opponent, given that his possible range of hands is likely AA KK or QQ or possibly AK, which are all difficult to get someone to fold on that board. Also, what move helps you rep AA the most. I disagree with the poster who said that people will always put you on a big hand when you re-raise big pre-flop. I think this move has become more and more common online and alot more players are suspicious of it.
All-in on the flop does seem radical, but It does apply alot of pressure. The check raise all-in is a good idea against strong players, but in my experiance most weaker players won't fold to it as often as you think they should.

I also like the argument that a fold might be too hard to get and that any betting will be committing yourself to a hand that is not a favorite. The pot is big, but it is not worth dying for, write it off as a failed steal attempt and hope he gives you free cards.

[fimbulwinter]

well, im too tired to give the book version but here's the cliffs notes:

if i bet he can fold which is good or he can call which kinda sucks or he can raise which sucks.

if i check he can check which is awesome LT, he can bet where i'll C/R all in where he can call which kinda sucks or he can fold which is awesome. and i make more when he folds. also, i can see a very bad player slowplaying here or taking a stab with a missed pp. since i didn't know him, that's my default read.

so i checked, the 5s rolled i bet he pushed and i called and QQ no good.

fim

PS- i didnt think such things through during the hand, i just assumed id made my profit preflop adn was going to check fold to a push that i expected from AA.

[savman]

u should preface all of ur posts with how insanely hot u run. apparently it never ends.

[fimbulwinter]

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u should preface all of ur posts with how insanely hot u run. apparently it never ends.

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i can post some hands where i raise preflop with nothing, bet the flop with NPND and get checkraised all in by TPTK and lose $150. those happen a lot too.

fim