Bubble decision in a satellite

[cha59]

Unusual situation:

Hero is in 19th place with 25 players left. Two of the stacks smaller than hero are under 2000. Top 24 all get the same prize.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t23324)
MP2 (t22665)
MP3 (t5160)
CO (t8470)
Hero (t6753)
SB (t36362)
BB (t34294)
UTG (t11879)
UTG+1 (t24106)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t800, MP3 calls t800, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>

Hero???

[adanthar]

Calls and flops a set, or folds to any substantial action by MP2 because you know he's calling a push.

The only reason to call here, BTW, is because you have MP3 covered...okay, I lied, the only reason is because I haven't folded aces PF yet and you have enough BB not to break that streak so why not limp. But I have no self control.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
Calls and flops a set, or folds to any substantial action by MP2 because you know he's calling a push.

The only reason to call here, BTW, is because you have MP3 covered...okay, I lied, the only reason is because I haven't folded aces PF yet and you have enough BB not to break that streak so why not limp. But I have no self control.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never even considered folding aces before either, but if MP3 gets my chips, I'm fighting the two shorties for 24th. There is no advantage in finishing 1st over 24th in this thing. All win the same seat. 25th is shitoutaluck.

The blinds will take out the short stacks in about one orbit they dont catch a hand.

Does anyone else consider folding here?

[jeramy576]

I like moving in here for the reason that if they all fold you pick up $2800 if you get called you are the favorite.Just flat calling here is a bad idea,because now you are letting the SB and BB see a cheap flop to crack your Aces.And AA doesn't fair to well against 4 others.You could make a standard raise of $2400 or so.But It would be kind of obvious that you wanted a call.Make the all-in you'll get more calls from the bigger stacks with there AJ and KQ and middle pairs.You'll get called by them with the small raise to but they won't be getting a good price.Plus you are on the button it looks more like a steal from there.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
I like moving in here for the reason that if they all fold you pick up $2800 if you get called you are the favorite.Just flat calling here is a bad idea,because now you are letting the SB and BB see a cheap flop to crack your Aces.And AA doesn't fair to well against 4 others.You could make a standard raise of $2400 or so.But It would be kind of obvious that you wanted a call.Make the all-in you'll get more calls from the bigger stacks with there AJ and KQ and middle pairs.You'll get called by them with the small raise to but they won't be getting a good price.Plus you are on the button it looks more like a steal from there.

[/ QUOTE ]this is a satellite



i hate it but i fold

[Exitonly]

it depends.. is this a turbo? if so.. fold 100%... theres no way it's making it around to you again without someone going out..and even then, you probably have two orbits in you.

If it's not a turbo... well then any of the 3 are good options but i'd probably lean towards folding.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
I like moving in here for the reason that if they all fold you pick up $2800 if you get called you are the favorite.Just flat calling here is a bad idea,because now you are letting the SB and BB see a cheap flop to crack your Aces.And AA doesn't fair to well against 4 others.You could make a standard raise of $2400 or so.But It would be kind of obvious that you wanted a call.Make the all-in you'll get more calls from the bigger stacks with there AJ and KQ and middle pairs.You'll get called by them with the small raise to but they won't be getting a good price.Plus you are on the button it looks more like a steal from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think I want any calls at this point though.

I dont know what my odds are of folding my way into the top prize, but I think its gotta be 95%+.

If I'm getting a call from anything, I'm what, anywhere from 70% to 85% favorite against any one opponent? Against two or more that number goes down substantially.

[ekky]

you've answered your own question. Jamming is better then calling, and folding is better then jamming(although I think its quite close).

Calling is a pointless and chip bleeding play.. exactly the type of play you want to avoid at this stage.

[LethalRose]

I think at this point it is reasonable to assume you can fold into the money. Unless a few of those people behind you double up id fold here.

remember with 2k and those blinds anyone shortstacked who pushes is going to get called by multiple people in an attempt to knock him out. Fold...

[jeramy576]

no way you fold more than likey noone is going to call you any way.Move in.