Frozen River?

TimM · #1 06-16-2005, 07:58 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

River: (8.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Can they really check if they have me beat?

Can they really call if they don't?

Moozh · #2 06-16-2005, 08:04 AM

If there was only a straight or a flush draw out, I'd be more receptive of the check. Since you can't assume the potential draw is only JQ, I think you need to bet this. I don't know 10/20 very well, but in my experience, people love to call.

pandared · #3 06-16-2005, 08:05 AM

why did you raise with q-k offsuit preflop? then semibluff on the flop when there was no chance u'd get 3 people to fold? Then the check-folding down is fine i guess...but preflop and on the flop weren't that great

JoshuaD · #4 06-16-2005, 08:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why did you raise with q-k offsuit preflop? then semibluff on the flop when there was no chance u'd get 3 people to fold? Then the check-folding down is fine i guess...but preflop and on the flop weren't that great

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop and flop are standard. Preflop is because charts and stats show it's winning to raise that preflop. Flop is good because our hand might be best.

Tim: I bet that river. I don't think all 3 had a draw on the flop, and it's rare to have someone try to check-raise the T twice here. I bet expecting to get called by a weaker hand often enough to be profitable.

Getting check-raised sucks though, I'd advice against it.

bakku · #5 06-16-2005, 08:20 AM

Hey Tim,

Easy river bet.

chief444 · #6 06-16-2005, 08:32 AM

I think this is a pretty easy bet. What will they call with? I'm not sure but they always seem to find something. And I think you're good here almost always. I can't imagine MP3 or CO checking a T through on both the turn and river and it makes no sense for UTG+2 to go for a check/raise with a T considering the relative position. JQ also seems unlikely given the river check through. You'll get at least one caller on average here and be good most of the time, IMO.

rmarotti · #7 06-16-2005, 08:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Can they really check if they have me beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe.

[ QUOTE ]
Can they really call if they don't?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely!

Bet the river.

TimM · #8 06-16-2005, 08:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop and flop are standard. Preflop is because charts and stats show it's winning to raise that preflop. Flop is good because our hand might be best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't even sure where to begin with the pre-flop question. I always raise KQo in any non-blind position in an unraised pot.

As for the flop, technically I'm quite likely behind to Ace high (or better), but the bet does other good things. Any folds help me, and I'd like to take a free card on the turn. Of course the downside is getting check-raised and then not getting one. I guess someone can make a case for taking the flop free card instead. This might be the more interesting part of the hand since the river is pretty clear.

thejameser · #9 06-16-2005, 09:02 AM

pretty common value bet situation for me. no one is going to risk a check raise going through twice on the turn and river. its okay, don't be scared to make money.

Aces McGee · #10 06-16-2005, 09:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Tim: I bet that river. I don't think all 3 had a draw on the flop, and it's rare to have someone try to check-raise the T twice here. I bet expecting to get called by a weaker hand often enough to be profitable.

Getting check-raised sucks though, I'd advice against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the river as well. My inclination is to fold to a check-raise. What do others think?

-McGee