Downswing right before 300 BBs

[shadow29]

I've worked my way up to almost 300 BBs of 1/2 on Party after countless hands at .5/1. However, in my last session prior to the recent downswing, I noticed that I had $599.00 (no joke) in my account. I fired up what I hoped would be my last stay at .5/1 and then I proceeded to drop about 20 BBs before qutting. Over the next few sessions I have had terrible variance.

Is this just normal? Or is this a form of tilt?

Any help is much appreciated.

[Cerril]

You're really the only one who can answer that. I dropped a solid 25BB right after hitting +250 ... something about humility, I suppose. It's quite possible you were playing much more LAGgy than you should have but I think only your hand histories can tell the difference between bad play and bad luck.

[bisonbison]

It happens.

Today:
500 hands in I was at -50BB
900 hands in I was at -2BB
1500 hands in I was at -50BB
1750 hands in I was at +15BB

The natural variance of the game is huge.

[TripleH68]

Patience. Discipline. Etc.

[Blarg]

If you consider 20 BB an omen or proof in itself of terrible variance, you've led an extremely charmed life. Get down on your knees and thank, I dunno, Jebus or something.

Really though, if you watch your daily totals too much you'll drive yourself crazy. Take it from a world class lunatic.

[shadow29]

Oh no, 20 BBs was just the start of it. I had prior committments and I left for those around the time -20 BBs rolled in. But what I was saying is that it went -20 BBs, then many sessions of -BB things.

I was simply wondering if there was any correlation between the 300 BB mark and this recent downswing OR if it was just natural variance.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
I was simply wondering if there was any correlation between the 300 BB mark and this recent downswing OR if it was just natural variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, there is a correlation, but it's subjective. There's no particular reason that you will or will not have a dip or an upswing as you approach 300BB, but you're going to notice it and make too much of it because the 300BB figure is subjectively important to you. I doubt that anyone can stop themselves from doing it. This is the same reason that you always seem to run card cold when you move up a level--you're simply more concerned with your short-term results at that point.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Your bankroll and my bankroll and everybody else's bankroll will fluctuate, period, end of story.
The fact that you had a certain amount is utterly, absolutely irrelevant unless it caused you to play differently.
Regards,
Al

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Your bankroll and my bankroll and everybody else's bankroll will fluctuate, period, end of story.
The fact that you had a certain amount is utterly, absolutely irrelevant unless it caused you to play differently.
Regards,
Al

[/ QUOTE ]

The "play differently" part is what has always happened to me. As I approached a BR amount for a new limit, I used to play a few hands, hit "cashier" and see what my balance was. Then, I'd play a few more and check again. This will absolutely destroy you. You start pushing with marginal hands when you get close to your goal, you miss, and it starts a vicious cycle.

Although I haven't gotten completely away from it (I still peek occasionally when I feel I am having a rough session so I can prepare myself psychologically for it and maybe get out if it's a lot worse than I thought), I try not to check my BR until I decide to quit.

[Carl_William]

Dear Shadow:

I know the Shadow knows. The Shadow asked a rhetorical question because the Shadow KNOWS. The rhetorical question was:

“I've worked my way up to almost 300 BBs of 1/2 on Party after countless hands at .5/1. However, in my last session prior to the recent downswing, I noticed that I had $599.00 (no joke) in my account. I fired up what I hoped would be my last stay at .5/1 and then I proceeded to drop about 20 BBs before quitting. Over the next few sessions I have had terrible variance.

Is this just normal? Or is this a form of tilt?

Any help is much appreciated.”

Probably a little Tilt or statistic swing -- no big deal but the real help is:

Help in the form of a Semi-Riddle – Then you think it out and draw your conclusions. But since you are the Shadow you already know the answer – right…

Answer: Poker businesses “Online Internet and B& M” make money from the collection drop. The more the players; the more the drop. The more the players play; the more the drop. It’s that simple – any poker site wants to maximize the number of players “customers,” and to enable each and every player to play as long as possible. This accomplished: the profit is maximized. Think…

Now think of the old Econ 401 parable concerning the rabbit population “the losers” and fox population “the winners.” You know the story: When the rabbit population increases this enables the foxes to have easy meals and the foxes multiply and start to wipe out the rabbits. Eventually the foxes start to starve because the rabbits are no longer abundant. So the foxes die off; allowing the rabbit population to increase – thus this cycle starts over again and again forever. Wise casino management thinks up clever ways to minimize this “rabbit-fox cycle” or “loser-winner cycle” from occurring in their casinos. How do they do this…?

B&M casinos use structure betting for the small limit games. For instance, a $2-$4 fixed betting structure as opposed to a $1 to $4 bet anytime; allows the rabbits to last a lot longer before they bust out of lose their bankrolls. The same goes for Online Internet casinos – they also use a fixed betting structure in most of their limit games. But the Online Internet casino has another option which can be applied – this is in the software. This technique through extremely clever programming can be made completely transparent to the players – it can be made essentially statically impossible to detect without the most sophisticated poker tracker software. Being a programmer for 30 years – I could do it (I admit it takes a lot of clever programming) . You the Shadow – think about this – I think you know the ANSWER.