3 folds at bubble time

[Mr. Curious]

This was a 100 person, $100 buy-in tourney.

Prize structure:
1st 35%
2nd 20%
3rd 10%
4th-10th also cash

The table is pretty tight as everyone is afraid to get knocked out.

Hand 1

There are 22 people left.

UTG is a very tight player who has not raised much and is the table captain.

Blinds are 500/1000

Hero has 7000 and UTG has 14000

Hero is dealt 66 on the button

Preflop: UTG raises to 5000, folded to Hero, Hero folds

<font color="blue">I was thinking about pushing here, but decided that my stack was big enough to survive the blinds and that all-in would only be best if I was the first person in the pot.</font>

Hand 2

11 people left.

Blinds are 2000/4000

Stacks:

UTG 20000
Hero 17000
BB 17000

UTG in this hand is very aggressive and has been blind stealing every chance he gets.
BB is very tight.

Hero is MP1 and dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG pushes all-in, Hero folds

<font color="blue">Although I thought that I might have had the best hand, I wasn't ready to go out on the bubble with just KQs. Had UTG folded, I would have pushed all-in myself as a blind steal, especially since the BB had the same stack as me. As it was, I figured that if the BB did call, UTG could knock her out and even if she did not call, she would lose her blind and her stack would shrink a lot. The other factor that influenced my decision was that UTG would not try to blind steal when I was in the blinds. So I figured that I was very likely to keep my BB, and possibly my SB too, since no one else at the table tried to steal the blinds.</font>

Hand 3

11 people left.

Blinds are 2000/4000

Stacks:

UTG 30000
CO 21000
Hero 17000


UTG in this hand is the super tight player from hand 1.
CO in this hand is the super aggressive player from hand 2.

Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button

Preflop: UTG raises to 5000, MP1 folds, CO pushes all-in for 21000, Hero folds


<font color="blue">I thought about making a stand here since UTG had shown that he was willing to fold to ensure that he kept his chips for the final table and CO could make this move with any two cards. But the blinds were coming up for MP1 who was the short stack and I thought that it was best to try to keep my chips hoping that she would get knocked out. Again, had CO not made this move, I would have pushed all-in myself.</font>

[Surfbullet]

Are these at a full table?

Okay I haven't been in the tourney loop long, but here's my take:

Hand1:

If UTG had been an aggressive stealer I'd say this would be a great place to try and double-up, since most times you'll be a 55% favorite, and occasionally a big favorite(when he's raising Ax, suited or not). However, since UTG has been tight he's likely got a legitimate holding, so I let this one go.

Hand2:

Even though UTG has been aggressive here, KQs doesn't rate well against a steal-raiser's range. Often you will be the underdog to Ax...and if he's been stealing alot it's also possible that his UTG raise is legit because chronic stealer's tend to do so from late position and tighten up in EP (especially after 1 or more steals already this orbit) to make the other players think they aren't really stealing that much. I'd let this one go too.

Hand3:

Both players here may have looser-than-normal raising standards, but you'll very often be behind MP's reraise whow may have an AT-AQ type hand, or may actually have a monster. The overlay from UTG would be nice, but i'd want a hand like 88-99 or something to make this call. A9s is asking for trouble. I fold this too.

If everyone is playing tight, bubble-poker we should be openpushing multiple times an orbit -we'll be able to pick up the blinds nearly always and should be able to double up or better without seeing a showdown. Even UTG who is the biggish stack won't call an allin because that would leave him severely crippled. Calling an allin to double-up with a mediocre hand isn't good bubble strategy, when you can pick up just as many chips by forcing your opponents to make that tough decision.

GL,

Surf

[bobbycharles]

As Harrington states, you need first in vigorish. In all 3 cases if you are first to act, you've got good stealing hands. But, in these three hands you've lost the first in vigorish, so the fold is correct IMO.

They all look good to me, although I might have considered calling all in on hand 3 with my suited ace. I probably would have gotten in a fight with a hand I didn't want to see (an ace that has me dominated) or against a pair, but UTG's raise was super tiny (4000 blind and he raises to 5000? Is that even possible?) but the pot right now has 28,000 chips you can win if UTG folds (making your stack 45,000 and a great chance of getting deep). If you think that CO was just raising to steal UTG's tiny raise and the blinds, then go for it and hope to nearly triple up, otherwise fold and steal next round with any 2 if you are first in.