Folding TPTK w.AK at 10-20 6max? Say it ain't so...

ggbman · #1 08-05-2005, 02:19 AM

Oppoent was something like 28/10 over a decent nymber of hands, seemed pretty solid prior to this hand.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG calls.

River: (16.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 18.25 BB

If you're not folding here, what is he playing like this, besides of course, AK.

Surfbullet · #2 08-05-2005, 02:26 AM

I'm the king of weird strong hand folds, but I'd call this down. I could see him playing any K this way.

I think if a player didn't ever fold TPTK or better for 1 more bet in decent sized pots in this game one would do ok.

Surf

ggbman · #3 08-05-2005, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm the king of weird strong hand folds, but I'd call this down. I could see him playing any K this way.

I think if a player didn't ever fold TPTK or better for 1 more bet in decent sized pots in this game one would do ok.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the action so far, what % of the time do you think he has a work worse than AK here?

Surfbullet · #4 08-05-2005, 02:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm the king of weird strong hand folds, but I'd call this down. I could see him playing any K this way.

I think if a player didn't ever fold TPTK or better for 1 more bet in decent sized pots in this game one would do ok.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the action so far, what % of the time do you think he has a work worse than AK here?

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We've got 8.5:1 effective odds to see a showdown (slightly better if UTG calls along). K9, 88, 99 are the hands we are realistically behind to, while we will be ahead of KT-KQ, TT or some other oddly played hand enough to call.

Basically I'm not 88% sure that I'm beat, so I see a showdown. People overplay their hands at the 10/20.

Surf

ggbman · #5 08-05-2005, 03:01 AM

Basically, i did the same analysis that you did and came to same conclusion. The thing is, people do overplay their hands. I was quite sure i was beat, and i have a lot of faith in my reads. I have difficulty deciding when i "can" and "can't" fold because their is the possibility of someone playing their hand like they are on crack.

Surfbullet · #6 08-05-2005, 03:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, i did the same analysis that you did and came to same conclusion. The thing is, people do overplay their hands. I was quite sure i was beat, and i have a lot of faith in my reads. I have difficulty deciding when i "can" and "can't" fold because their is the possibility of someone playing their hand like they are on crack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. It makes me nuts, I realize intellectually that I'm behind his hands that make sense...but this pot is biiiiig, and people do weird things in big pots. It's important to get to showdown. Use those great instincts in smaller pots where mistakes are more costly - I don't think i'm ever 90% certain about this type of scenario at the 10/20.

Surf

ALL1N · #7 08-05-2005, 06:55 AM

I'd have reraised the flop to put pressure on UTG who likely holds 5 outs.

And I'd probably call down, as the fact that he holds 88 here very rarely means that he has to be weirding it up (overplaying a pair, trying to pull a move) very very rarely for folding to be correct.

stripsqueez · #8 08-05-2005, 07:09 AM

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I'd have reraised the flop to put pressure on UTG who likely holds 5 outs

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i'd have 3 bet the flop because i want to get more money in and put pressure on UTG and its the best route to get to showdown and it will be easier to find a big fold on the turn if thats whats right

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

ggbman · #9 08-05-2005, 01:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd have reraised the flop to put pressure on UTG who likely holds 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd have 3 bet the flop because i want to get more money in and put pressure on UTG and its the best route to get to showdown and it will be easier to find a big fold on the turn if thats whats right

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

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Just out of curiosity, doesn't my line make it easier to find the big fold? I three bet preflop,raised the flop, called his raise, and then popped the turn again. I decided that there just wasnt any hand he had here that he wasn't capping preflop that i had beat, P.S., i usually 3 bet the flop, but latley i find there is some value in having them lead the turn into you.

sammy_g · #10 08-05-2005, 03:03 PM

I get to showdown here. I would not be shocked at all if villain had KQ. Maybe another AK.

MP has played the hand strongly, but what hands does he open raise that have you beat? 88 or 99? AA or KK is unlikely since he didn't cap.

Getting 8.5:1 effective odds, I think he has a worse king often enough.