Hand question: Pot odds and MTT bubbles

Hand #7278975-158 at Sun12pmB-001 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)

Me--> FouTight is at seat 0 with 8085. (big blind, 300)
Greggers is at seat 2 with 11355.
helenrnurse is at seat 3 with 7195.
msbrandyb1 is at seat 4 with 3420.
Cbers is at seat 5 with 7110.
virgoguy22 is at seat 6 with 17860.
RickHi is at seat 7 with 3430.
Deep146 is at seat 8 with 10120.
Lawman00759 is at seat 9 with 11055. (small blind, 150)
The button is at seat 7.

FouTight: Td Qs

Pre-flop:

Greggers folds. helenrnurse raises to 1275.
msbrandyb1 folds. Cbers folds. virgoguy22 calls.
RickHi calls. Deep146 folds. Lawman00759 folds.
FouTight folds.

So here I have a situation where we are on the bubble of a 10$ MTT on UB- 35 players left or so and top30 paid. Helen (7.1K seems tight) raises, Virgo (17.8K just got moved, table leader and he has been moving his chips since he sat down), Rick (3.4K calls for 1/3 of his stack?!). The call to me is 975 and the pot is now at 4500 (25 * 9 + 450 + 1275 * 3).

4500 : 975 = 4.6:1 to my money, which is quite favorable and I would tend to make this call with alot of hands.

I had 7780 at the time, so this call was for 12% of my stack (7780 / 975). I didnt like that at all but Q-10 is a top20% hand* so its not total crap.

I really wanted to, but the little voice in my head told me to screw pot odds because it was almost sure I was dominated. (however, even if dominated I dont know if 4.6:1 is +EV or -EV)

What do you guys think about this situation?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand #7278975-158 at Sun12pmB-001 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)

Me--> FouTight is at seat 0 with 8085. (big blind, 300)
Greggers is at seat 2 with 11355.
helenrnurse is at seat 3 with 7195.
msbrandyb1 is at seat 4 with 3420.
Cbers is at seat 5 with 7110.
virgoguy22 is at seat 6 with 17860.
RickHi is at seat 7 with 3430.
Deep146 is at seat 8 with 10120.
Lawman00759 is at seat 9 with 11055. (small blind, 150)
The button is at seat 7.

FouTight: Td Qs

Pre-flop:

Greggers folds. helenrnurse raises to 1275.
msbrandyb1 folds. Cbers folds. virgoguy22 calls.
RickHi calls. Deep146 folds. Lawman00759 folds.
FouTight folds.

So here I have a situation where we are on the bubble of a 10$ MTT on UB- 35 players left or so and top30 paid. Helen (7.1K seems tight) raises, Virgo (17.8K just got moved, table leader and he has been moving his chips since he sat down), Rick (3.4K calls for 1/3 of his stack?!). The call to me is 975 and the pot is now at 4500 (25 * 9 + 450 + 1275 * 3).

4500 : 975 = 4.6:1 to my money, which is quite favorable and I would tend to make this call with alot of hands.

I had 7780 at the time, so this call was for 12% of my stack (7780 / 975). I didnt like that at all but Q-10 is a top20% hand* so its not total crap.

I really wanted to, but the little voice in my head told me to screw pot odds because it was almost sure I was dominated. (however, even if dominated I dont know if 4.6:1 is +EV or -EV)

What do you guys think about this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold. The main problem with this hand is that you are going to have a hard time avoiding getting your chips in if you flop a hand like top pair, when you could be drawing slim.

Your odds are decent, but not great with that many players in the hand. (more players = lower equity). You could limp behind here, but calling a raise and overcall is bad bad bad.

[Superfluous Man]

I fold this, bubble or not. You have to win 18% of the time or so to break even given the 4.6:1 pot odds (scale this down for implied odds, but still...). Even if only one of the three hands you're up against dominates you, you probably fall short of that 18%. The raiser's tightness (and the fact that he's utg+1) only makes you more likely to be way behind in this hand. Finally, you'll have the worst position postflop, making subsequent decisions very difficult. What if the flop is Qxx? You'll have no way of knowing whether your hand is good, and you're likely to lose a big chunk (if not all of) your stack here or fold the best hand.

Also, unless Rick is a total donk (and you shouldn't discount this possibility), calling for 1/3rd of his stack should set off some sort of alarm.

Hell, I'd rather play something like 56s (though I'd probably fold this, as well) because at least when I hit with 56s I'll more often get an overpair's stack instead of losing my stack.

Sorry the flop came 9JK or something, and welcome to the boards.

[LetYouDown]

I agree. What flop are you hoping to see besides A-K-J rainbow? Top pair/garbage kicker is very likely to get you busted here.

In this situation, I'd much rather have a lower suited connector like 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] where post flop play is easy and you can hit a hand you feel confident is best.

There are simply too many hands that beat you. You can only be confident with QT offsuit if you flop some sort of monster or OESD with an overcard. Even a flop with two queens would have me nervous, because AQ, KQ, and QJ all destroy you. Those holdings are not unlikely given the amount of callers.

Now, if you had QT suited, you probably have a pot odds edge, as you have additional flush possibilities (even though it is not the nut flush), but I would still be hesitant to take a flop with it against 3 opponents in a raised pot. This is a classic trap hand.

It is not always correct to push a small edge in a tournament, if you expect to have bigger edges later.

Also keep in mind that you will be in horrible position on every round of betting. Lets say the flop comes down QJ2r. You are first to act, what do you do? If you bet and get raised, do you dump the hand, fearing a domination? Do you check-call? Then you have no idea where you are. Do you check-raise? If so, you could very well be out of the tournament when the villian shows KQ.

There is no way I would make the call, despite pot odds. I say you live to fight another day, and use those 975 chips to greater effect down the road. You will very likely need to double up at some point, probably more than once, to score in the top 3, and those extra 975 chips get compounded pretty quick.

But, take what I say with a grain of salt, I am no tournament expert or poker champion.

[KyleM]

The real question is, why would you even think about calling a raise w/QTo at a full table?

''The real question is, why would you even think about calling a raise w/QTo at a full table? ''

Because I was being layed 4.6:1 on my money which, even if im dominated, I *think* is still a OK +EV call based on pot odds.

Thanks to those who replied. I came really close to calling... and was telling myself that I i just flopped a Q that I would check-fold the hand to not risk anymore chips. And youll be seeing alot of me in the near future as I try to up my game. My girl is going away for August so itll be POKER 24/7 lol
Anyways, here is what happened:

Flop (board: Ts 4d Qd):

helenrnurse checks. virgoguy22 bets 4500. RickHi
goes all-in for 2130. helenrnurse folds. virgoguy22
is returned 2370 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

virgoguy22 shows Ad 9d.
RickHi shows Ks Jh.


Turn (board: Ts 4d Qd Qh):

(no action in this round)


River (board: Ts 4d Qd Qh 5d):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

virgoguy22 has Ad 9d 4d Qd 5d: flush, ace high.
RickHi has Ks Jh Ts Qd Qh: a pair of queens.


Hand #7278975-158 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
virgoguy22 wins 8760 with flush, ace high.


I woulda have taken a MOOONNNSSTTERR POT and would probably sitting with about 20K in chips. I'm not kicking myself for folding this, but it did bring up the question of wether the 975chip risk was worth it at this point in the tournement.

[A_PLUS]

Boooooo......the worst kind of bad beat post.

Its not a bad beat post. Its a 'is calling with 4.6:1 odds with QT' a +EV play. Im not complaining about folding and hitting, im just wondering if a call was justified by pot odds.

[A_PLUS]

No. This is an easy fold

and if the QQT hadnt hit, no way you are posting this hand.