very simple odds question

hi guys,

i find people here very helpful and appreciate it.

my question is this:

odds of flopping two pairs or three of kind from 27o? (basically any non-straight, offsuit, no paired??)

once i get that number, i can do an approximation for the entire table having flopped something.

i find so much of the odds stuff out there is based on 5 cards coming, but seems like odds to the flop are so much more important in alot of situations.

i'd really appreciate any help. thank you!!

alright, answering my own post (although not a perfect answer)..

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

two pair from non-paired = 49/1 or 2%
3 of a kind from 27o = 1.35%

i'm certain you can't just add these #'s but i'm not sure if you'd discount the combination or bump it up. i think bump it up as once you have one pair, you have 2 chances to hit either the second pair or the three of a kind....

although for my simple purposes, i'll just add the #'s.

The combined chance that the flop hits you hard when you hold two non-paired, unsuited cards (you flop two pair, three of a kind, full house or four of a kind) is 3.47%. Or 1 in 29.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
alright, answering my own post (although not a perfect answer)..

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

two pair from non-paired = 49/1 or 2.0%
3 of a kind from 27o = 1.35%

i'm certain you can't just add these #'s

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny, since I'm certain that you CAN just add these #'s. (Will you give me a million-to-1 odds then? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]). The reason is that these 2 hands are mutually exclusive, meaning that you can't flop both hands at the same time. Those percentages do not include full houses.

2-pair (72x): 3*3*44/19600 = 2.02%
trips (77x or 22x): 3*2*44/19600 = 1.35%
-------------------
2-pair or trips: 2.02% + 1.35% = 3.37%

full house (772 or 227): 3*3*2/19600 = 0.09%
quads (777 or 222): 2/19600 = 0.01%
-------------------
2-pair or trips or full house or quads: 3.37% + 0.09% + 0.01% = 3.47%

Note that the 2-pair does not include a pair on the board.

[ QUOTE ]
The combined chance that the flop hits you hard when you hold two non-paired, unsuited cards (you flop two pair, three of a kind, full house or four of a kind) is 3.47%. Or 1 in 29.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, you got the idea, was just wondering odds of your beautiful AA (or KK/QQ, but then it gets more complex) getting killed on the flop with mediocre callers? and it seems to happen alot with a decent # of callers?

thanks again!!