Holy cow! (lc) - Page 3

Skjonne · #1 06-18-2005, 12:26 AM

Just noticed: The converter is weird but nobody noticed.

1+2 (blinds)
7 (my raise)
2*85 (rereraise and call)

=180

According to the HH they checked it down postflop (very hard to believe) and the final pot was $180, i.e. no rake was taken. Huh?

gulebjorn · #2 06-18-2005, 02:08 AM

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Please don't do that.

You think this is settled. You agree with Harrington, so why not let people in on the Truth you have discovered?

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No need to be sarcastic. Yes, I think it is settled, and yes, I agree with Harrington. I don't know about the Truth I have discovered. I read a book. Other people do that too, you know.

I think that especially the part about outguessing yourself is very accurate. Without a huge read, you're laying down a big favorite preflop here.

Are you telling me that out of all the times people go all-in preflop when you are holding kings (I'm not even talking about 6-max) in small stakes games, you are a good enough poker player to point out the exact 1 in 24 occasions when they have aces?

If so, good for you. If not (like me), you should just call and be happy to see them turn over QQ or even 88 every once in a while.

pzhon · #3 06-18-2005, 07:16 AM

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Yes, I think it is settled, and yes, I agree with Harrington.

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I think you are wrong, and I think Harrington knows it can be right by a lot to fold KK preflop when the stacks are deeper.

At NL 25, it may be wrong to fold KK preflop with 100 BB stacks, since people can turn up JJ or AT. However, in my experience, people rarely push over a reraise with less than KK at NL 100. Unless you are up against a known maniac, it's not worth calling to see AA again.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you telling me that out of all the times people go all-in preflop when you are holding kings (I'm not even talking about 6-max) in small stakes games, you are a good enough poker player to point out the exact 1 in 24 occasions when they have aces?

[/ QUOTE ]
If people were to move in every time I have KK, then that 1 in 24 figure is relevant. I would call every time, and on average, I would be a huge favorite. Since they don't move in randomly, the 1 out of 24 figure is not relevant. When someone moves in over a reraise, you get information. Sometimes this is enough information to fold KK.

I didn't determine this abstractly. I determined this by failing to fold KK, and seeing AA over and over again.

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If not (like me), you should just call and be happy to see them turn over QQ or even 88 every once in a while.

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They don't turn over 88 or 94o 23 out of 24 times for you? Then you see those pushes are not random.

"Every once in a while" is not often enough. How often do you have to be up against something other than AA to call with KK? If you assume your opponent has either AA or an unbiased distribution of KK, QQ, and AK hands, you are a 73:27 favorite when you are not up against AA. When you are up against AA, you are an 82:18 underdog.

If you are getting 2:1, you need to see something other than AA 28% of the time to call. At 3:2, you need 40%. At 10:9, you need to see something other than AA 53% of the time to call. How often does "every once in a while" mean to you?

I'd say it isn't often enough to say to call with KK in some FAQ without restricting the context.

gulebjorn · #4 06-18-2005, 08:50 AM

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At 3:2, you need 40%.

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Without a very good read, I would assume that my chances of seeing kings, queens, jacks, tens, AK or whatever are better than 40% here.