Size Does Matter

[Paul Thomson]

I call and hope he's on a flush draw. I wouldn't raise because if he's on a flush draw he's likely to push and then I have to fold.

If he checks to us on the turn, I bet half the pot and fold to a check-raise. If he make a half-size bet or larger on the turn, I call. If he makes a smaller bet then I raise.

If he then bets into us on the river, 75% of the time I fold. If he checks the river, I check behind and hope that we don't split.

We also have outs if a diamond falls because it looks like we're playing a flush draw.

The disadvantage of this line is that if he might bet into us on the river if his flush draw misses, since that is his only option to win the pot.

[A_PLUS]

I dont really agree with your rational, Locutus.

I dont know why pushing b/c we are afraid of the turn is a good idea. If he has a hand that leaves us really vulnerable to a turn card, ie. two-way draws, over card draws, pair + draws, etc. He isnt folding to a jam anyway.

The hands he folds are the hands he has 2-8 outs with.

Showing that a push is profitable, doesnt mean that it is the best line.

[MLG]

I agree. However, if a push overbet can get call from hands we have crushed like JQ/J10/1010/99/88 then it might have merit. I suppose its possible that against the right opponent it would be a good play, but certainly not as a default.

[EverettKings]

Seems like one of those spots where he's either feeling it out with 88/99/QJ type stuff, or trying to build a pot with bottom set. That said, if you raise he probably folds all the hands you want in. If you call, he may lead the turn again strong (then you can consider a fold) or if he checks I'd like a checkbehind as it keeps the pot small, allows you to get some extra value by betting or calling the river vs a worse made hand, and saves you some chips vs a big pat hand.

Though I should back up and look at the whole draw possibility. I don't see him having a pure flush (or straight) draw here, since the vast majority of players check in that spot (and either checkraise bluff or call). Leading a pure flush draw intending to 3 bet is possible but very very few players will do it (and without a read, I can't flag him as tricky enough to do this). Something like 76d/JTd he could very well be intending to 3bet, and I think they are more likely to be played this way than a set, but there just aren't that many combinations of them out there. There are, however, a bazillion combos of KJ/QJ/JT/J9/77-TT that exist. And I want their money.

Everett

[woodguy]

This looks like a set all day long, why is everyone discounting it or not giving a set much thought? Myabe because a set is boring and you probably don't post that?

Soss is right, you still have to raise to find out what you are up against because it costs the least right here, if re-popped I think you let it go.

Calling is ok, but you still won't know where you stand, and if he keeps firing and you don't improve, it will cost you more to get to showdown or raise on turn.

The nice thing about calling is often the villian check folds the turn, but this doesn't feel like one of those hands, as yout PF raise of a limper shows strength, and he's betting into strength....

Find out now where you stand while its cheap.

Regards,
Woodguy

[locutus2002]

I agree,

I didn't say it was the best line, I said it was profitable. (significantly).

The problem I have with calling or 3 betting is that I can't put hero on a flush draw if I was villain, so I might be looking to bet/push every diamond, king, queen. Villain has alot of FE in this situation and it is unclear how EV+ it is for hero, although he is ahead of villain's range but unlikely to know when he is behind.

Top pair is not that good of a trapping hand
Villain should call a push with some of his hands that are behind (KJ,QJ,JT)??
I think hands like 66-TT are only going to put another chip in the pot when they are way ahead, so your giving free cards much of the time. (40% of his holdings)
The stacks aren't that deep for villain moving to 150/300 next level.
Without a read, I don't want to figure out how villain is playing on my dime. Give me the 1.4K EV and move to the next hand.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a set all day long, why is everyone discounting it or not giving a set much thought?

[/ QUOTE ]

My worldview is that sets check to the PFR much more often than they lead. Therefore, I consider the set possibility but I would underweight it.

I have really sucked for the last several months, though, so maybe my worldview needs to change. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

[MLG]

I agree with your worldview 100%.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]


My worldview is that sets check to the PFR much more often than they lead. Therefore, I consider the set possibility but I would underweight it.

I have really sucked for the last several months, though, so maybe my worldview needs to change.

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW!!!

I was just reading some of your posts, glad to see you are posting again, please keep it up.

Regards,
Woodguy

[bruce]

That's what my wife tells me!!

Bruce