quick odds calculation question

[SpeakEasy]

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I estimate my outs on the flop to be any ace or ten -- 7 outs. Formula: 7x4=28. 28% chance of seeing one of my cards on the turn or river. Translated into pot odds, this is roughly 4 to 1 odds of hitting one of my outs. If the pot + bets is giving me better than 4 to 1 odds, I call on the flop (or raise, if the situation dictates).

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This is very bad advice. Yes, you have a 28% of hitting your hand by the river with 7 outs, but you are not using pot odds properly because you are failing to include the cost of calling on the turn and river.

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You are correct that I am only calculating the "Express Odds" in this situation. The wisdom of the remainder of my advice is open for vigorous debate based on a variety of possible assumptions. However, let's return to the initial question of the first post:

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If i had two overcards and a flush draw on the flop, how would i go about calculating my odds of hitting one of my outs by the river?

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My advice answered this question precisely. If you want Lesson 2 on "Implied Odds," that will cost you extra...

If I call, there are several possible scenarios:
1. One of my outs hits on the turn. Will he pay me off when I bet? Unknown. If yes, my implied odds back on the flop call increases.
2. One of my cards does not hit on the turn. He bets. Should I call? My decision here will be based on a new calculation of the pot odds, plus a slight adjustment for the implied odds on the river.
3. One of my cards did not hit on the turn but hits on the river. If I bet, will he pay me off? If yes, this becomes part of the implied odds calculation back on both the flop and the turn.

Because there are so many variables after the flop, I will calculate my pot odds on the flop (like in my post above) and factor in an adjustment for my implied odds on the turn and river based on quick assumptions about what I think my opponent will do if one of my cards hits (which is, of course, usually wild-ass speculation, especially when you are trying to quickly assess whether to make a call on the flop).

My advice above accurately calculates the chances of hitting one of my outs by the river. In my example, I will call with 4 to 1 odds, recalculate on the turn if I don't hit, and make an adjustment based on whether I think he will pay me off if I hit.

Anything more than this will sprain my brain for a simple flop decision.

[binions]

You have it backwards.

It's 1 - the chance you won't hit an out.

So, 1-((32/47)*(31/46)) = 54.1% to hit at least one of your outs.

[top2pear]

Does anyone else see how we have failed to resolve the difference between Goodnews's calculation and his friend's calculation?

We all just accepted Goodnews's faulty odds count: two overcards and a flush draw (presumably 4-to-the-flush) is only 13 outs twice because two of the helpful overcards are also part of the flush draw.

{This is the first and only time that i will ever be the first one to spot a mathematical mistake.}

[Cobra]

I was assuming he had something like AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the flop came 97 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. In this situation he would have 9 outs to the flush and an additional 6 outs to top pair and kicker.

Cobra

[KCFire105]

huh?

[KCFire105]

Hopefully there is a simple reply to my question.

Would the following example be correct?

Flop = 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I hold K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I would have 13 outs equaling a 52% chance of catching.

No matter the pot size I would be able to call any size bet given that I would automatically receive better that 1-1 on my call?

Slightly different situation with no flush draw on the Flop of- 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I have K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

So I have 6 outs (minus the backdoor straight draw, or should that be figured in somehow?)

I now have a 24% chance of hitting, so I had best be getting 3 to 1 on my money (pot size + plus their bets?)

(On a side note, in early position, would you come out betting or check with the 13 outer flush draw and two overs?)

Thanks!

[damaniac]

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Hopefully there is a simple reply to my question.

Would the following example be correct?

Flop = 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I hold K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I would have 13 outs equaling a 52% chance of catching.

No matter the pot size I would be able to call any size bet given that I would automatically receive better that 1-1 on my call?

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First off, you would have 9 flush outs plus 6 unseen K/J (the KJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (although one normally discounts overcard outs), so that's 15.

Second, you may be 52% (or whatever it would be, I'm not calculating it now) to hit...by the river. You really should just calculate your odds to hit on the next card and compare that to the pot size, because you will usually have to call a turn bet which changes your effective odds. Then you reevaluate on the turn if you miss. Knowing your chances of hitting by the river are really only good for equity purposes and if your opponent is all-in.

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Slightly different situation with no flush draw on the Flop of- 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I have K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

So I have 6 outs (minus the backdoor straight draw, or should that be figured in somehow?)

I now have a 24% chance of hitting, so I had best be getting 3 to 1 on my money (pot size + plus their bets?)

(On a side note, in early position, would you come out betting or check with the 13 outer flush draw and two overs?)

Thanks!

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Again, your odds are really less than half this. The overcards aren't always good, but even ignoring that, you will have to pay a big bet on the turn to see the river, so you really only have about a 12% chance of hitting on the turn, so factor that in.

As far as flush draws go, if you are multiway on the flop and have a flush draw, you should usually bet and raise. You will make your flush 35% by the river, and usually will win when you do. If you have two or more opponents, you are putting in less than 35% of the money, so each bet (as long as 2 or more opponents call) earns you money.

[top2pear]

You're right, Cobra. My bad. (And i thought i was being all smart and stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

[Goodnews]

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You will make your flush 35% by the river, and usually will win when you do. If you have two or more opponents, you are putting in less than 35% of the money, so each bet (as long as 2 or more opponents call) earns you money.

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Really? 35% to hit backdoor flushes? I don't think thats right, isnt it more like 3%?

[Hellmouth]

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You will make your flush 35% by the river, and usually will win when you do. If you have two or more opponents, you are putting in less than 35% of the money, so each bet (as long as 2 or more opponents call) earns you money.

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Really? 35% to hit backdoor flushes? I don't think thats right, isnt it more like 3%?

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Runner Runner flushes are like 1.5 outs on the flop. This means that if you have 3 hearts out and need two more it is like 3%. However if 4 hearts are out by the flop then the percentage of one more coming on the turn or river is about 35%.

Greg