Meta and Future Value

[BoxTree]

Commerce 20/40, 9-handed

Hero is in the Hijack with with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

2 limps, Hero raises, folds to BB, BB calls, limpers call.

Flop (4 players, 8 sb): A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checks to Hero, Hero bets, BB calls, 1 limper calls.

Turn (3 players, 5.5 bb): 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checks to Hero, Hero bets, BB calls, limper folds.

River (2 players, 7.5 bb): J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB says, "That's a bad beat, kid," and bets. Hero...?

Notes on Villain: I've played with him before but only vaguely remember him. He's a 40/80 player and is waiting for a game. Apparently, he remembers playing with me as he refers to me as his "fellow triber." He also says that he's cutting me a break since I'm a good kid. I have absolutely no reason to believe that he's feeding me crap and is trying to induce a fold. I think he just put a bad beat on me by hitting his backdoor flush. (I don't think he has a straight since he wouldn't refer to that as a "bad beat," but yeah, he could have a straight.)

But I now have a set of Jacks.

I give pause. I ask, "Did you really just hit your runner runner flush?"

He doesn't respond.

I pause. "Will you show if I fold?"

He answers, "You know what? I'm gonna teach you a lesson now. No."

I pause.

I'm going to post results here since I don't care about this part of the hand.

I say, "I believe you anyways," and I face-up fold my Jacks. As my cards are in mid-air (not in my hands) approaching the muck (so, BEFORE he sees my hand), he turns over his hand (Td8d for the rivered flush...and straight) and says, "Eh, you're a good kid."

So, who calls here? Who folds? Who raises (and what's your screenname)?

But I don't really care about that.

In the future, let's say I had AdKd. Do you raise the river? Or do just call? This isn't a "nice guy" vs. "I'd raise my own grandmother" question. I'm considering EV. Raising should show a little more EV than calling since I can only benefit by raising. So, as long as he calls a raise >0% of the time, a raise is +EV. Pretty standard when you're holding the nuts in position. But what about the future? If I raise here, he's not likely to give me a break in the future, so I'll have to call his river bet (in the future) with my set of Jacks. That would likely make my raise with AdKd -EV since I'm much more likely to call his bet (with my set) than he is to call my bet (with a lower flush against a raise on the river). So, is it worth softplaying with a guy who knows me better than I know him? Another option would be to raise the river and say something like, "Don't worry, it's not a bad beat," and if he calls, toss him back two chips or something. That may be the highest EV situation as I think he'd continue to "give me a break" in the future.