5/10: Controlling how many bets go in on the river

[RunDownHouse]

I think I played this correctly, but I want to make sure. Villian sat down not long ago, but he lrr'd TT UTG while 4handed, and I get the general feeling that he's on the LAG side, liking to put bets in with moderate strength regardless of strength shown by others. Other than that, no real reads.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

I have the choice to put 1 bet in for sure, or go 2 and risk going 3. If I'm 3bet, how bad are my chances? If 3bet, do I cap?

If the river hadn't been another 4, I might throw in another raise. As is, given that he woke up on the turn 4, the only thing he could be playing this way that you're beating is a weaker flush. My guess is there's a 60-65% chance you're ahead right now - let's assume 60% for simplicity. Presumably he will only call your raise if he's behind you. If he's ahead, he might only call with a K-high flush, and he will probably three-bet an A-high flush, a full house, or quads. Let's assume there's a 10% chance of a K-high flush.

Then calling has an expectation of -.4 BBs (ignoring what's already in the pot - you're obviously not folding).

Raising has an expectation of .6 - .3*2 -.1*1= -.1.

So it would seem that if these percentages are reasonable, raising is best, even if he'll never 3-bet a worse hand.

Do my calculations seem weird here? They do to me.

[robinsons]

[ QUOTE ]

Then calling has an expectation of -.4 BBs (ignoring what's already in the pot - you're obviously not folding).

Raising has an expectation of .6 - .3*2 -.1*1= -.1.


[/ QUOTE ]

not sure how you did your calc's...
I tried doing it myself (only counting bets going in on the river), and came up with:

ev(calling) = 0.2
ev(raising) = 2*0.6 - 2*0.1 - 3*.3 = 0.1

assuming ahead 60%, when behind he just calls 10% and 3bets 30%

Well, I didn't count BB's first bet on the river in my calculations on the theory that it is going to be there no matter what we do. So thinking at the margin, that bet "shouldn't count", right?

Honestly, I have no idea if this makes any sense at all though.

[bhudson]

The way I see this, we are likely screwed here so I wouldn't carry it any further and just take it to SD. The majority of his hand range beats us, and he IS going crazy even though your 3-bet should have told him, yes, you too have a flush. Do you really think he is going nuts with something like 65 or 52? Even if it were so, we are still more likely to be behind.

[imported_leader]

I'd raise/call

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see this, we are likely screwed here so I wouldn't carry it any further and just take it to SD.

[/ QUOTE ]
Bump for day crew.

FWIW I thought a flopped two pair or a J with a big heart was more likely than a flopped set or another flush. But those are possible, too.

[Wynton]

Purely on an intuitive level, I'd just call that river.

I actually don't think he's got a higher flush. Because in that case, I believe he'd try a stopngo on the turn (i.e., just call the 3-bet and plan a c/r on the river). So that leaves the choices of a smaller flush or 2 pair or trips.

Put a gun to my head and I say he had trips on the turn.

But this is all based on hunches, not anything reliable like probabilities.