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#11
12-04-2005, 03:49 PM
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Re: I need to start doing this more
[ QUOTE ]
With your position on the field as it is, betting the flop in a 3-way pot that went three bets preflop vs. raising the expected bet from the LAG in a 3-way pot that went 2 bets preflop will result in the exact same pot size and pot odds offered to your opponents. [/ QUOTE ] The difference between raising pf lags flop bet vs 3 betting pf is that when I raise pf lags flop bet, it will be b/c I hit the flop and have a decent equity. Even though the pot will have the same amount of bets if I raise the flop vs 3 betting pf, my equity will have significantly improved. I think calling the turn w/AQ or AJ is prefectly reasonable for this player b/c 1) he's got the gutter, 2) Hes got an A out which is likely to be good if he hits it and 3) theres a chance he's got the best hand at the moment and I check behind on the river and he wins UI. [ QUOTE ] By your own reasoning, you are losing an extra bet more often than you win one. And I don't think that he's betting those underpairs on the turn very often at all, especially if he chose not to bet with one on the T-high, rainbow flop. The K represents another overcard and he's got another player (you) yet to act behind him--a lot of players will just check again with a hand like 44, and of those who then call a bet there, many will call another on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're missing the point of the river bet. While its true that I will get called prolly 60% of the time or so, I dont need to win the potmore than 50% of the time I get called. I just need to make him fold the best hand 2 out of every 13 times I bet. If we assume that he always folds A high but never folds a pair, my bet is pretty clearly +EV b/c I will lose 1 BB 36 times and win 5.5 sbs 28.5 times. The question is really, after we throw out the busted draws that I beat and won't call, do AJ/AQ make up more than or less than 15% of his hands on the river? I think the answer to this question is yes 
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#12
12-04-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: I need to start doing this more
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see much value in a river bet attempting to fold a better hand as the only hands you lose to that might fold are AQ or AJ, and either of these should have been an easy 3-bet preflop against the LAG [/ QUOTE ] The key word there is should. To you and I its an easy 3 bet but to him he might call. He is prolly a lil passive and might not readily want to isolate the ep raiser. [ QUOTE ] Since no worse hand will be calling here you need to have mp hold AJ or AQ and fold it to the river bet about 1/6 of the time to profit off of it and I don't think its possible to put him on a range of hands small enough to be sure of that [/ QUOTE ] Why is that not possible? In another post I gave you the hand range I put him on. 33,44, 66-99, AJ, AQ, A9?. Even if we eliminate A9 from his range and include JJ and QQ, its still a pretty +EV bet as he would be 2:1 against holding AQ or AJ and I'm getting 5.5:1 on my river bet. What hand range do you put him on?
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