Junk in the blinds, turn a pair

[uw_madtown]

Villian is unknown. This is my seventh hand with him -- 6 were folds, the other one he called a PFR in the BB with A7o and called a bet on the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flop, rest of the hand got checked down.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (2.16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

Totally lost on what to do on this turn.

[w_alloy]

Against a loose pasive, which this guy appears to be, I'll c/f this flop.

I would bet the turn, and c/c the river UI. He could still have Ax or Kx here, or some random crap. I think you are still ahead of this players range, if not it is close, and you you need to protect.

I'd c/f this flop against anyone no matter who he was.

I'd bet/fold turn and c/f river. A guy who calls with a gutshot and then doesn't ever bet his hand seems like he won't bet without better than a six on the river

[TStoneMBD]

i do like betting these hands when you have a gutshot especially against loose passives who wont raise because i want to see a turn. although, i think its vital that if youre going to bet this then you need to think your folding equity outweighs the money youve lost putting a bet in with the worst hand.

i think your pair outs are likely to be good at least half the time giving you about 7 outs which makes me want to proceed on this board.

7 outs equates to rougly 15% pot equity or .45 of a small bet getting 3:1. this means if you were to check and fold you would be passing up on .45 of a small bet whereas if you check and call you are giving the opponent equity by putting money in with the worst hand. however, your pot equity is .45% of a bet. if you invest a bet yourself your pot equity in that bet is .15% of that bet meaning you are investing .85% of a bet to win .45% for -.40% of a bet in ev.

-.40% is better than losing .45%

having said that, you do have implied odds on this board when you catch your gutshot but its hard to estimate how much against an unknown button limper. im not sure if you have reverse implied odds when you catch a pair however. against a loose passive donk such as him he is probably calling your flop bet with any 2 and will sometimes raise making your pot equity far worse having to proceed for 2 bets.

i think there will also be times when you check the flop and he checks behind.

after all this math ive decided that i want to see a turn with this hand but im not sure if i like a bet or a checkcall. betting naturally sounds right according to twoplustwo aggression but i think checkcalling might be more profitable.

after youve bet the flop however i do like betting the turn again. villain has called your flop bet with probably any 2 and you are likely ahead at this point. i would take this to the showdown unless a spade or ace hits the river.

[oreogod]

I dont agree w/ Tstones math.

Here is an example I gave to Tstone in IRC because he asked me about a non-specfic situation where u have a 7outer and the pot is 3:1 to u.(I hadnt read this thread yet...so my example takes place on the flop and u have a 7 outer)

Also my example has Hero being bet into.


OREGOD: say there are 3sbs in the pot to u..u have 7 outs. if none of your outs hit u lose 1sb, if they do u win 1bb (so 2sbs) on average from your opponent later in the hand. (this also doesnt take into account the times your opponent re-improves on u)

So w/ a 7 outer on the flop and u want EV for 1card to come:
Improve on Turn: (15.2*5sbs)=+.76sb
No improvement: (.84.8*-1sbs)=-.84.8sbs
Total EV~<font color="red">-.09sbs</font>

Read more on this stuff here: Jason Pohl Overcard article His articles should be required reading when u are starting out HU/shorthanded. (He used to be a solid poster back when HUSh was first getting its legs.)

EDIT: Here is the same situation on the turn (because you would be investing 1bb compared to 1sb):

Improve on River: (15.2*4BBs)=+.608sbs
No improvement: (.84.8*-1BBs)=-.848sbs
Total EV=<font color="red">-.24BBs</font>

[oreogod]

I added some stuff to my intial post. Also I know my example is different but I was trying to illustrate a situation tstone asked about.

Anyway, Im betting this turn usually. Then react accordingly, but as of yet u have no reason to belive u are behind.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a loose pasive, which this guy appears to be, I'll c/f this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be hesitant to trust any sort of read at this point, since it's only been 7 hands. Although given that this is 3/6 6m, loose passive is as good a default as any.

I largely bet this flop because I talked with Victor briefly in Vegas about shorthanded play. The "talk" mostly consisted of me explaining how much I suck at it, him being very humble, and then both of us returning to food and alcohol. However, one thing he mentioned was that, in the blinds, he bets a large percent of the flops when there's one bad preflop limper. So this hand is me (mis?)applying his comments.

[ QUOTE ]
after all this math ive decided that i want to see a turn with this hand but im not sure if i like a bet or a checkcall. betting naturally sounds right according to twoplustwo aggression but i think checkcalling might be more profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

More people smarter than me should continue this discussion. I think if I had a read on him as being somewhat tighter postflop than average (for 3/6) then that pushes this to a bet, but I'm not sure. As for the turn...

Continued action:

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (2.17 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero...

[DMBFan23]

pls pls fold the turn

[KDawgCometh]

madtown, I like the flop bet, I like the turn bet. I think you have to fold this turn raise by the villian. Your hand is weak, and that board is full of draws that have come in. Most default 3/6 6ers are gonna have a hand that beats you there

[TStoneMBD]

fold turn