River Value-Bluff

[Lmn55d]

MP is like 28/21 or something like that. I think he's capping like AJo+ here maybe ATs. The other guy is very loose and passive, like 70 VPIP. I think MP might call river a lot with big aces, and loose guy very well might call with any ace. It's also possible MP folds AK. Thus value bluff. Good? Dumb? Anyone checkraise flop?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks.

River: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

[brazilio]

I ran into a similar situation, and I think you have value here against &lt;AQ enough to make this.

I'm pretty sure I play this the same way.

Preflop is fine. Folding the flop is -EV. So, the flop debate is whether to call or raise. I think calling is slightly better. Once the turn is checked, it appears that you have a good chance of having the best hand unless the TAG is really weak-tight post flop. The river bet looks good considering you're likely to have the best hand and you can get called by worse ace hands.

Looks good overall.

[Spicymoose]

I don't see this as a bluff, as I don't think any hands you beat are folding. As for the value part, I don't think there is enough. You might be beating CO, but he could also have an underpair to the J, and simply be playing scared. Also you have to be worried that BB might has something that beats you.

I like inducing a bluff more.

[Lmn55d]

you don't think a multitabling TAG ever folds AK here? Also, who would bluff? The loose passive? The TAG who has a hand with a lot of showdown value?

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't think a multitabling TAG ever folds AK here? Also, who would bluff? The loose passive? The TAG who has a hand with a lot of showdown value?

[/ QUOTE ]

The TAG trying to push you off your higher ace.

I think fairly often enough it gets checked threw though.

[Danenania]

I like it. I don't think it's a bluff though, just a good value bet.

[baronzeus]

what does everyone think of c/r this flop?

[Lmn55d]

damnit. The mythical value-bluff still eludes me. One day...

[Lmn55d]

I considered it but decided that it's not as good as check/call becaue the other guy is so loose.