Raising the flop w/overs

[Wynton]

I think a fold would be ok, if it had only been HU on the flop. As it is, I would have peeled, rather than raised.

First off, if we had just overs it'd be kind of close. Maybe a fold. We also have a BDFD (nut), which is worth about 2 outs with the implied odds, however, that makes a fold here poor.

So since this isn't a terribly threatening board let's discount our 6 overcard outs to say, 4 outs. With the BDFD we're then getting full value on a total of 6 outs (which might seem like lazy math, since it'll be using the same value you were using up until this point, but it's actually about the correct number).

On the flop you're offered 7:1 to call and make a 6.7:1 draw on the next street. If you make this call you'll show a profit of about 0.05SB. If you raise you'll be paying 4:1 for a 3.2:1 draw. This play shows a profit of about 0.2SB (there's slightly more profit in drawing turn > river than flop > turn, since there's a smaller deck). Also, if you hit your heart on the turn you'll be a far happier camper having paid 2SB than 3SB to get to the river.

Now, that being said, even a passive opponent's not going to grant you a free card here 100% of the time. Sometimes he'll have a strong holding and come over the top for 3 bets on the flop, which is a disaster. This, situation, however, will be in the minority. You also have some additional implied odds on the overcards that'll outweigh the reverse by a bit (unless you play poorly post-flop) that makes this marginal looking spot quite playable.

The crux of it is that if taking a chance once is worth a certain number of units, then taking that chance twice will wield twice as many units. By raising and seeing two streets you basically make the same profitable peel twice in one hand.

[ErrantNight]

the backdoor draw gets much of its usefulness from the fact that you will sometimes be able to fold the turn if you don't pick up a flush draw.

it seems to me that there are plenty of times when you don't want to see the turn, and times villain won't let you see it for free.

I'd rather peel, fold U/I. If you pick up the flush draw, your turn call will have some value. If you don't, getting out is cheaper.

[Wynton]

In case it wasn't clear before, I'm not recommending a fold, but a call. I just meant to say that, if the hand was headsup, then the pot would be smaller and it might make sense to fold.

[Monty Cantsin]

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On the surface this might seem like you have +EV edge. However, consider that:

- you are assuming clean overs

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A certain percentage of the time.


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- he is on an OESD, you are facing a 5th street redraw, or he can have you dead on the turn (but you will call a river bet if you hit)


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How does the fact that sometimes he's on a draw hurt the +EV of raising? It seems like the opposite would be true. For example, sometimes you will take a free card on the turn and the river will go check/check and you'll win the pot unimproved.


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- some amount of the time (small perhaps, but measurable), the LP will donk the turn or three-bet the flop


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Agreed, the chance of this happening definitely bites into the +EV of raising the flop.


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- you could be drawing perfect-perfect on the flop, if he flopped two pair


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Likewise, but much less likely.

In my opinion, when you plug numbers into all these variables you are going to get a read-out that says ITS CLOSE in 1970's style intellivision computer writing. Close enough, in my opinion, that metagame factors come into play. I wouldn't want to do the same thing in this spot every time.

/mc

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the backdoor draw gets much of its usefulness from the fact that you will sometimes be able to fold the turn if you don't pick up a flush draw.

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I kind of forgot about that, but I'm not going to go through the bucket of math to figure out exactly what the difference is. If the pot was just 1SB bigger this would be a really easy raise, since your rate of return would be bigger with better odds and show more net to compensate for failures. Since you're drawing kind of slim (and due to the BDFD thing), however, maybe it's just a peel after all.

[RunDownHouse]

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We also have a BDFD (nut), which is worth about 2 outs with the implied odds, however, that makes a fold here poor.

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I think you're way overvaluing the BDFD and underestimating the times you're dominated by Ax.

[Saborion]

Seems like a pretty bad spot to raise imo. That flop could've hit the SB in a lot of ways, depending on just what kind of hands he would cold-call with preflop. He's leading into the BB and the PFR, so clearly he has *something*. A pair isn't likely to fold before the river, and neither is a draw. Isn't this a spot where a fold might be the best play given the board, the pot size and the action so far?

Edit: I forgot about the backdoor flush draw. Maybe calling or raising is correct due to the backdoor draw, I guess math would aid in deciding whether to fold, call or raise.

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I think you're way overvaluing the BDFD and underestimating the times you're dominated by Ax.

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That's about the right value for the BDFD (which is normally a 1.5, so 2.0 with a nut is usually about right with implied). 33% of the time for dirty overs or redraws also seems about right. There's also a small (and it's pretty small, since he'll probably have a 15 outer) portion of the time where the river will check through and you'll feel clever when he mucks a 6 or two hearts.

Another thing to consider is that a 3rd heart on the turn may convince him that he has to donk out, even if he wasn't intending to. This is actually a really interesting, borderline spot. I've never put much thought into these before.

[BoogieDown]

Not sure if you've read them yet, but these two articles by Jason Pohl provide some detailed analysis about playing overcards on the flop in shorthanded games.

https://www.pokerpages.com/articles/...son-pohl16.htm

https://www.pokerpages.com/articles/...son-pohl17.htm