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#11
10-31-2005, 02:24 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised by how many people like this hand. CO has raised at every opportunity; after the pf-3bet and flop cap, this is almost never AJ or TT. IMO the turn bet is spewing. I think even the flop 3-bet is close since I'm not sure if enough unknown villains will 3bet AJ pf or raise TT on the flop. However, I'd probably still do it based on the pot size, number of donks padding the pot, and the chance he puts you on UI AK with a weaker pair. [/ QUOTE ] Disagree. The turn card gave us a little more equity with 4 gutshot outs, though the 2 remaining queens are now very suspect. If CO raised on the turn, then call down (assuming we didn't make the straight on the river) 
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#12
10-31-2005, 02:24 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
[ QUOTE ]
So, I should do check/call on the turn? What if I check on the turn CO bets it and someone reraises, easy fold? If I check, CO bets and everyone Calls on the turn and the river is a brick Do I check/call also? [/ QUOTE ] You would at least be getting 11.75:1 on your call, which is more than enough for your gutshot draw if all your outs are live, and you have to make up a little over 1BB if one of them is dirty. Factor in the few times your Set outs are good (this is a really easy board for someone to have 2 pair on) and it's a profitable call. Just be careful on the River with the Trips.
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#13
10-31-2005, 02:37 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
Don't bet the turn, other than that it is all good.
Margon
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#14
10-31-2005, 02:55 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm surprised by how many people like this hand. CO has raised at every opportunity; after the pf-3bet and flop cap, this is almost never AJ or TT. IMO the turn bet is spewing. I think even the flop 3-bet is close since I'm not sure if enough unknown villains will 3bet AJ pf or raise TT on the flop. However, I'd probably still do it based on the pot size, number of donks padding the pot, and the chance he puts you on UI AK with a weaker pair. [/ QUOTE ] Disagree. The turn card gave us a little more equity with 4 gutshot outs, though the 2 remaining queens are now very suspect. If CO raised on the turn, then call down (assuming we didn't make the straight on the river) [/ QUOTE ] What losing hand range can you reasonably put Villan on here? Our equity is a little higher, but the flop cap means we're very likely behind. It sounds to me like you're advocating a value-bet with a 4.5-outer on the turn.
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#16
10-31-2005, 03:16 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
I don't like the turn bet at all. The only hand villain could possibly have that's consistent with the action so far that you're beating is TT, and he might not have capped with that preflop. You're up against AA, KK, or JJ here the overwhelming majority of the time.
Otherwise, everything is standard. I hate the suggestion to raise the river. You're getting an overcall from CO. However, hands you beat will not overcall two cold, and hands that have you beat will be quick to 3-bet.
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#17
10-31-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
I am checking the turn against an unknown who has been aggressive.
I like the overcall on the river. If you raise and force the others out, and SB 3-bets his flush, you're making a crying call. On the other hand, you will make more money with the overcalls the times that SB does not have a flush.
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#19
10-31-2005, 03:22 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
[ QUOTE ]
Oh and raise the river. Unless SB will bluff bet/fold this river he is calling one more bet. Unless CO if just the king of making the big laydowns he has shown us his desire to go to Showdown enough to overcall our raise here with KK and AA. [/ QUOTE ] AA and KK are both uber-easy folds facing a bet-and-raise on this board IMO.
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#20
10-31-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: Advice on how this hand was played? (6max, big pot)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Oh and raise the river. Unless SB will bluff bet/fold this river he is calling one more bet. Unless CO if just the king of making the big laydowns he has shown us his desire to go to Showdown enough to overcall our raise here with KK and AA. [/ QUOTE ] AA and KK are both uber-easy folds facing a bet-and-raise on this board IMO. [/ QUOTE ] That's you, and you are probably correct to do so, but our opponents aren't ones to make the correct folds in these situations. Besides that, most of the time if he folds you still net the BB you lose from him from SB when he calls. Your counting on Button to call a bet that he wouldn't have called had you raised for this to be +EV, and I don't think this is happening to often. As far as SB having the Flush, look at the PF and Flop action. What 2 card club combination is likely given all his donk calling of the raising going on? It is much more likely that villian is donking 2 pair, trips, or some piece of the straight here. Given the action I would say him donking with a hand like 9T, TJ, or TT is MUCH more likely than any of the 2 card club combinations you could present.
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