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  #1  
Old 05-13-2005, 01:08 AM
ethan ethan is offline
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Default AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

This hand happened in a PS 5.50+rebuys today. 700 started, we're down to 300-350 here. Money starts at 65 left, but I'm playing to win yadda yadda.

Avg stack is around 13K at this point and I've been at this table maybe 15 hands or so. UTG+2 likes to make small raises - he's minraised twice in early position and made it 600 (3xBB) after a limper from MP. I reraised that 600 to 2000, he and the limper called, and they both folded to 1/2pot on a Qxx flop. I don't think he's gone to showdown since I got to the table...people have been folding to his medium-sized continuation bets.

There's one limper, UTG+2 makes it 100xBB to go, and it's folded to me on the button with AQs. I don't think the limper's limp-reraising...he's done a bunch of limp-call+check-fold so far. My only concern here is UTG+2's range. I don't think he'd play AA/KK this way, and I don't think it's QQ either. My guess is pairs JJ-55, AKo-AJo, AKs-ATs, and about 10% something totally bizarre like 67s/A3o. He's doing something donkish, but I'm not certain I know what.

If I call and win I have a significant chiplead over the rest of the table. I may not quite have enough pot equity to call, but it's probably pretty close. I think doubling my chips will more than double my equity in the tournament here. So I call.

Like it? Hate it?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed)converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO (t27730)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t22615)</font>
SB (t14747)
BB (t2640)
UTG (t10468)
UTG+1 (t16800)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 (t20333)</font>
MP2 (t9795)
MP3 (t14995)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t200, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t20308</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t22590</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: t43273
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  #2  
Old 05-13-2005, 01:28 AM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

During the rebuy phase, with slightly shallower stacks, I like this move. Here, I can't say I'm a big fan. You're getting about as close to 1:1 as you can get, and even if your read is correct I don't think you're going to be much better than 40-45% against that range. It's still early enough that I think chip EV = $ EV is a pretty good rule of thumb.
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Old 05-13-2005, 02:18 AM
ethan ethan is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

Since I didn't put odds in the main post (or, in fact, calculate them before making it) I figured I should add them.

According to PokerStove:
AQs vs JJ-55, AKs-ATs, AKo-AJo: 50/50
AQs vs JJ-55, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo: 46/54
AQs vs JJ-55, AKs-AQs, AKo: 44/56
AQs vs AA-55, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo: 42/58 - higher than I expected
---------------------------------------------------------
Note that none of these include the "10% something bizarre", so I'm figuring I'm doing a little better than these numbers.

And if my read's completely wrong and he has AA-JJ, AKs, AKo I'm 32%/68% and pretty thoroughly boned. I don't think this'll be the case though.
---------------------------------------------------------

I really wanted this guy's chips - he was clearly donkish and going to give them to _someone_. I may have been overzealous in trying to get them first though. As I hadn't seen any of his cards I couldn't be too certain about the range I gave him, so if you think I'm guessing incorrectly feel free to say so.
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  #4  
Old 05-13-2005, 03:12 AM
lies lies is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

im guessing if you had won, you wouldnt be posting here
so, you lost a coinflip and you are wondering if you should have called
i'd say save your chips for when you are in a better spot
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  #5  
Old 05-13-2005, 03:28 AM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

The bet is bizzare so I wouldn't rule out AA or KK.
I think some pairs are possible such as 99-QQ but unlikely.
Most people are happy playing the small pairs for set value after one player has limped.
I think the most likely hand to see is AKs. It looks invincible before the flop.

I would call much more quickly with TT than with AQ.
I would fold the AQ.

Villain is losing out on the possibility of playing against hands that he dominates in exchange for picking up the antes most of the time.
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  #6  
Old 05-13-2005, 03:29 AM
ethan ethan is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

[ QUOTE ]
im guessing if you had won, you wouldnt be posting here
so, you lost a coinflip and you are wondering if you should have called


[/ QUOTE ]

No.

You see nothing potentially interesting in this hand? I posted because:

a) he raised about 97xBB more than he usually would, and I'm curious what people think that implies about his range
b) if winning means getting a big stack and letting me bully everyone else, is it worth taking a slightly -chipEV gamble to do so?

[ QUOTE ]
i'd say save your chips for when you are in a better spot

[/ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. Welcome to the forums.
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  #7  
Old 05-13-2005, 03:42 AM
TheTROLL TheTROLL is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

I'd assume it was aces, and he's decided to forego the few hundred/thousand he would normally pick up with them on the offchance that someone will call the loony bet... preferably someone with Ax....
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  #8  
Old 05-13-2005, 04:01 AM
ethan ethan is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

[ QUOTE ]
During the rebuy phase, with slightly shallower stacks, I like this move. Here, I can't say I'm a big fan. You're getting about as close to 1:1 as you can get, and even if your read is correct I don't think you're going to be much better than 40-45% against that range. It's still early enough that I think chip EV = $ EV is a pretty good rule of thumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

So far consensus seems to be "fold, moran." Which is fine. But I have more questions if you'll indulge me.

Say we're nearing the end of the rebuys...blinds 75/150, we each have 6000. Is calling 40x there all that much different than 100x here? I'm getting the same price on my money, and I'm not sure his hand range is different. I'm asking because you're implying that the shallower stacks are the important factor, and not that I can rebuy. And while yes, I can rebuy, if we're nearing the end of the first hour I'm not too excited about buying myself a shortstack. I'll do it, but I really want to end that first hour with at least 10K.

Say the hand range I gave in the original post is correct, and my equity is exactly 50%. Do you make this call? Recently for me the answer's become a definite "yes", because I'm getting more accustomed to running my table as a laggy big stack.

edit - I posted this hand in part because I've been pondering this thread. I realize there are some obvious differences - I'm risking my whole tournament, Gigabet plays about a billion times better than I do, and so on. But I'm making a marginal chipEV play in the hope that it'll pay off over the rest of my hands at the table.

Then again, everyone says I'm being stupid.
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  #9  
Old 05-13-2005, 08:53 AM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Default Re: AQs vs overbet, gambooling for a stack

The reason that I think shallower stacks make a difference has very little to do with the immediate odds or difference in his hand ranges; it's just that if you have a stack of 100 BBs or so later in the rebuy, you've probably already got a pretty nice stack and thus the gamble isn't quite as nice as if you still need to try and build up a big stack before the rebuy ends. So near the beginning of the rebuy where 100 BBs isn't too much to get excited about, go ahead and take it - it was kind of silly of me not to specify.

The 50% question is interesting. Yes, I think if I really thought that it was a neutral equity decision, I'd take it for both the reason you mention, and also because it makes a lot of sense from a $/hr perspective, particularly since this is a $5 rebuy. And I don't think the decision is stupid, just mildly unconventional.
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